China’s current wave of COVID-19 cases, following the recent easing of pandemic restrictions, is seeing a “rapid surge” and the country can expect to see a return to normalcy only after the spring of next year, top epidemiologist and government advisor Zhong Nanshan told State media.
Following Wednesday’s easing of pandemic restrictions, including a stop to mass testing, lockdowns and other measures under the earlier “zero-COVID” policy, Chinese cities are seeing a rapid spread of cases.
The Chinese capital on Sunday saw many residents queue outside fever clinics for medicines, although most cases reported so far have been mild. Streets remained empty despite the opening measures because of residents’ concern over contracting COVID after three years of living under the zero-COVID policy.
In recent days, top experts have taken to State media to convey to people that the Omicron variant was mild and most people should stay home and isolate, rather than crowd clinics and hospitals. The messaging marks a stark shift from an earlier policy of forcibly quarantining all positive cases and close contacts in government-run facilities, with Beijing finally abandoning its pursuit of zero-COVID facing growing economic costs and rising public anger.
“I was asked when our lives can return to where we were in 2019. My view is that in the first half of next year after March,” Mr. Zhong was quoted as telling State media in the city of Guangzhou, reported the South China Morning Post. “Although I can’t guarantee it, the trend says it should be around that time.”
The current concern in China is the large number of the elderly unvaccinated population and whether Chinese cities will see mass deaths as was seen in Hong Kong earlier this year. On Friday, the government announced a “tiered” policy to classify all older residents according to risk to ensure access to treatment for those at higher risk.
Mr. Zhong urged people to take booster shots, and pointed out the situation on the mainland was somewhat better placed than Hong Kong with more than two-thirds of the 250 million people above 60 having had the three doses needed to prevent serious cases, compared with 20% in Hong Kong at the time of its wave in February.
Meanwhile, China’s Premier Li Keqiang said the country “will keep advancing high-level opening up and steadily expand institutional opening up,” following a meeting in eastern China with six heads of multilateral institutions including President of the World Bank Group David Malpass, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva, and Director-General of the World Trade Organisation Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. He said he expected “growth to rebound” with the changes in the country’s COVID-19 response.
The country, however, first has to negotiate a difficult winter and the first wave of cases following its opening from zero-COVID, which is likely to see vast swathes of the population contract the virus for the first time and pressure on its healthcare system.
