The national campaign for a second referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU on the terms being negotiated by the British government set out six scenarios in which such a vote would be possible, as it sought new momentum and show that the referendum — long talked about in theory — was practically possible.
“More than two years since the 2016 referendum, a political, economic and possibly constitutional crisis is gathering across the United Kingdom... the most viable and democratic way of resolving it is to allow the public to have their say on Brexit. To deny them a voice challenges the basic principle of informed consent,” said Lord Kerr, a former top civil servant and former U.K. Ambassador to the EU in the 1990s, who authored a report published on Wednesday.
Following consultations with constitutional and legal experts, the report concluded that the “die is not irrevocably cast... there is still time, and until the U.K. has left the EU, the Article 50 letter can be withdrawn,” he said, referring to the mechanism that the U.K. triggered last year, which set a two-year deadline for Britain to leave the EU. The country is set to leave on March 29 next year.
Parliament vote
According to a poll published by YouGov in July, 42% of people in the U.K. believe there should be a referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal, while 40% do not.
Parliament is set to vote on the terms of the agreement being reached by the U.K. government later this year. Campaigners for the “People’s Vote” suggest that a motion in the House of Commons at the time of the vote could be used to secure a referendum, as could amendments to Brexit legislation. If MPs rejected the Brexit deal, or no final deal was reached by January 21 next year, the government must table a statement on how it wants to proceed, and Parliament could use the vote that would take place on this as an opportunity to call for a referendum.
Other scenarios could include a snap general election, or the Prime Minister calling for one in the event of a no-deal scenario looking likely. “If a People’s vote is not granted by Parliament, it will not be due to procedural impediments or a lack of time, but because MPs have chosen not to take these opportunities,” concludes the report.
The report will increase pressure on the Labour Party to change its stance on a second referendum. While the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats back the idea of a second referendum, the Labour Party, alongside the ruling Conservatives, have continued to maintain the need to deliver on what they see as the will of the people.
However, a burgeoning number of Labour MPs have been breaking ranks with leadership to support this, as have a number of Conservative MPs. While number of supporters within the House of Commons will play a decisive role in determining whether a second vote could take place, the Speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow, a Conservative MP who has been critical of Brexit, could also play a crucial role in some of these scenarios.
Alongside politicians, a growing number of businesses, unions, and other groups have begun to support a People’s Vote, including the Community Union, which is one of the main unions representing Tata Steel’s workers in the UK. Liberal Democrat leader Vincent Cable called on Labour Leader Jeremy Corbyn to stand down as party leader if he failed to back a second referendum.
Chuka Umunna, a Labour MP and prominent campaigner for a People’s Vote, said earlier this week he had been speaking to EU diplomats in Brussels who were “adamant” that if Britain wanted a People’s Vote, the door was always open and Britain would be granted time to hold one.
On Wednesday and Thursday this week, EU heads of state are gathering for an informal meeting to discuss internal security, migration and Brexit. Discussions are focussing on the future partnership, the final phase of talks, potentially including a further summit in November, and resolving the long-running issue of how to avoid a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
“Limiting damage caused by Brexit is a shared interest, Unfortunately, a no-deal scenario is still quite possible,” warned Donald Tusk, President of the European Council. “But if we all act responsibly, we can avoid a catastrophe.”
