British Prime Minister Theresa May will face a vote of no-confidence in her leadership of the Conservative Party on Wednesday evening after hard-Brexit supporting MPs in the party have followed through with their warning that they would seek a new leadership of the party to attempt to extract a new deal from EU leaders.
The Prime Minister has pledged to contest the vote with “everything” she has. “A change of leadership will put our country’s future at risk and create uncertainty when we can least afford it,” she said on the steps of Downing Street on Wednesday morning, warning that ousting her would risk handing Brexit negotiations to opposition MPs in Parliament or delaying Brexit.
There are growing expectations that in order to rally support within her parliamentary party, the Prime Minister will tell MPs that she is willing to step down before the next election, if they support her at this crucial stage.
During an extremely heated session of Prime Minister’s Questions, she reiterated that message, warning her colleagues that ousting her could simply bring a Labour government closer to a reality, which risked “no plan, no clue, no Brexit”. However, she ducked a question from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on whether she had been able to persuade EU leaders to change the terms of the withdrawal deal after a day of meeting leaders. On Tuesday, leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, made it plain that the deal on the table was the only one on offer.
Mr. Corbyn condemned the decision to refuse to set a date for the meaningful vote on the withdrawal deal as “unacceptable”. “Her behaviour today is just contemptuous of Parliament.” There is mounting speculation that even if Ms. May survives the internal party no-confidence vote, she could face a parliamentary no-confidence vote. Should this command a majority and no new government command a majority of support, an early general election would be triggered.
Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the backbench 1922 committee of the Conservative Party, said on Wednesday morning that they had reached the 15% threshold for a vote of confidence after at least 48 Conservative MPs submitted letters of no-confidence in Ms. May’s leadership. The secret ballot will take place between 6pm and 8pm on Wednesday evening local time in Parliament, with the results expected later that evening.
“The Country needs a new leader, it is time for Ms. May to resign,” said Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chair of the influential pro-hard-Brexit European Research Group of MPs, who has been one of the main instigators of the no-confidence drive.
Victory number
While the BBC reported that at least 158 Conservative MPs (the number she need to win the vote) said they would support her, uncertainty remains given the secret nature of the ballot and the heavy lobbying tactics being used by both sides ahead of the vote.
The dramatic turn within the parliamentary party against Ms. May commenced after details of the withdrawal deal first emerged in November, with Brexiteers particularly scathing over backstop arrangements to prevent a hard border developing on the island of Ireland.
However, initial expectations of a swift vote quickly dwindled as they appeared to struggle to reach the necessary threshold. It was her decision to delay a vote on the withdrawal deal and attempt to reopen negotiations with EU leaders on Monday evening that swung more of the party against her. The U-turn by Ms. May had come after days of government insistence that the vote would go ahead, while 164 MPs contributed to four days of detailed debate on the withdrawal agreement.
Ms. May had attempted to pacify her critics by pledging to return to Brussels to gain new assurances but with EU leaders insisting that the deal on the table was the only one on offer, Ms. May’s critics believe only a new leader who is willing to risk crashing out of the EU could extract further concessions from Europe.
Holding the vote is a high-risk strategy for all involved. Ms. May would require at least 158 votes or a majority of Conservative MPs to win, under which circumstances she couldn’t face a vote of confidence (within the party) for at least another year though she still could face a separate no-confidence motion within Parliament.
If she lost the vote, she would have to stand down as party leader and a new leadership contest would have to take place, in which she would not be able to stand. This process could potentially take months, involving a two-stage process in which MPs would have to whittle it down to two candidates that would then be put to the party membership. In 2016, when David Cameron stepped down, the process was faster because one of the two candidates dropped out of the race, leaving Ms. May as the only one.
During this period, until a successor is found, Ms. May would likely remain Prime Minister but would have little power or ability to lead negotiations.
Brexit deadline
The leadership contest would therefore mean that the party could only have a new leader — and Britain a new Prime Minister — close to (or even after) the January 21 deadline. Under Brexit legislation, if a deal is not reached by then-, certain mechanisms would kick in handing far greater power to Parliament and therefore opposition parties, who have been scathing in their criticism of the deal.
The Labour Party has been pushing for a “softer Brexit” that includes customs union membership in order to meet six tests for Brexit, including Britain not being worse off. The Liberal Democrats, Greens and Scottish National Party (and some members of Labour) are pushing for a second referendum. The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland has demands similar to hard Brexiteers, relating to the backstop and the maintenance of regulatory unity across the United Kingdom (which would not be the case if the backstop was entered into).
The delay could also lead to Britain failing to negotiate in time and crash out of the EU, or it could force Britain to delay Brexit. It is currently due to leave the EU on March 29.
Supporters of the Prime Minister are hoping that the prospect of these three scenarios could mean that even critics of Ms. May will refrain from voting against her. “The clock is running down,” David Gauke, Justice Secretary, told the BBC on Wednesday morning.
Some senior members of the Cabinet swiftly tweeted their support for Ms. May. Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd who returned to government last month said the Prime Minister had her “full support” while Home Secretary Sajid Javid said a party leadership election would be “self-indulgent and wrong.”
Any successor to Ms. May would have to garner at least two supporters among fellow Conservative MPs, following which a vote takes place in which the person with the least votes exits the race. Further rounds take place to whittle down the list until two candidates can be put to members of the party across the country.
Among the names circulating as potential leadership contenders are Javid, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt and his predecessor Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, the former Brexit Secretary, who resigned over the withdrawal deal and Penny Mordaunt, the current International Development Secretary.
