What happened?
At 11 p.m., in 61 days, Britain is set to leave the European Union and could do so without a deal, effectively rendering all laws governing its interaction with the union (on trade, travel, pretty much anything) no longer applicable. Disruption to medical and food supplies and travel aside, this would — even by the government’s own analysis — be economically disastrous for Britain, with a growth loss of up to 10.7% over a 15-year period. However, with no solution in sight and parliamentarians only in agreement on what they don’t want rather than what they should do, leaving with no deal is now the default scenario and a very real possibility.
Is May responsible?
Innumerable factors have contributed to this precarious situation. There has been Theresa May’s intransigence and unwillingness to explore any idea beyond those she set out last year, involving a common rule book and free trade zone with the EU, through an end to the free movement of people that is a central tenet of the EU. While “hard” Brexiteers have contributed to her resolve — she does not want to be the Conservative Prime Minister responsible for a massive split in her party — much of the stubbornness comes from within her, and in particular from her obsession with curbing immigration. She spent six years as Home Secretary — before taking over as Prime Minister in 2016 — and was the architect of the “hostile environment” that has come under much scrutiny in the past year over the wrongful treatment of Commonwealth migrants who arrived in Britain up to the early 1970s. She has been adamant Britain must cut net migration to the tens of thousands from the 100s of thousands and has therefore made ending free movement with the EU a red line for her, rendering solutions such as custom union membership demanded by other politicians a non-starter.
What about repercussions?
There’s also a sizeable contingent of the Conservative parliamentary party that is not convinced crashing out is such a big deal. The likes of Boris Johnson regularly point to the supposed “evidence” like the preparedness of the Mayor of Calais (the French port) to insist scare tactics are being deployed, and polling shows there’s enough support for their perspective within the wider party membership. In a recent poll, 57% of the Conservative Party members said they would choose a no-deal exit if offered a choice between that, Ms. May’s original withdrawal deal and remaining in the EU. Many of them don’t want Ms. May to take no-deal off the table, with one prominent commentator suggesting that to do would be like walking into a car showroom and insisting one would not walk out without buying a car.
What happened in Parliament?
Others bear their share of responsibility too, not least Parliament which, when it allowed her to trigger Article 50 to leave the EU, didn’t put any constraint on the nature of the deal she could negotiate it. That’s left Ms. May and her team free to play a game of chicken: essentially threatening it either her way or a no-deal at all. Labour and other Opposition parties are persistently seeking a commitment from her to take no-deal off the table, but the move comes rather too late to be effective.
That’s partly because its looking increasingly questionable whether the EU would be willing to offer Britain an extension (effectively delaying Brexit) that might be necessary to avert a no-deal. The EU’s chief negotiator on Brexit, Michel Barnier, this week warned that simply opposing no-deal in the House of Commons would not stop it from happening unless a majority agreed on an alternative agreement. The next significant moment comes on Tuesday when MPs will vote on Ms. May’s ‘Plan B’ which she outlined after her withdrawal deal failed to get through Parliament earlier this month. Amendments have been tabled but hopes that one calling for a second referendum could succeed have evaporated. Labour continues to refuse to back a second referendum, insisting a general election is the way ahead. So even though a majority of parliamentarians may agree that a no-deal Brexit is a terrible idea, it may not be enough to stop it from happening.
