The story so far: Nepal is going through yet another churn in its polity and government. Ahead of the presidential election scheduled for March 9, there has been a fresh change in the combination of parties that will determine the ruling coalition in the country. Former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli-led CPN-UML party has decided to withdraw its support to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’-led government following a disagreement over support to the presidential candidate. Mr. Dahal will now seek a vote of confidence after the presidential election and reshuffle his Cabinet as well, local media reports said.
Power sharing in Nepal’s House of Representatives
Nepal went to polls in November 2022 and the Nepali Congress emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats in the 275-member House of Representatives (HoR). The Nepali Congress had formed a pre-poll coalition with Mr. Dahal-led Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) besides other parties such as the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified-Socialist), former prime minister Baburam Bhattarai’s Socialist Party of Nepal, and the Madhes-based Loktantrik Samajwadi Party, among others. Mr. Dahal’s Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) could only win 32 seats—FPTP (first past the post) plus proportional representation— in an underwhelming performance as part of the Democratic Left Alliance (DLA) coalition. Mr. Oli’s Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML), meanwhile, bagged 78 seats overall even as the UML-led coalition came in second place to the DLA.
Sher Bahadur Deuba, the incumbent Prime Minister leading the Nepali Congress, was expected to return to the post following the coalition’s victory. But in a twist post the elections, Mr. Dahal exited the alliance and joined hands with Mr. Oli’s UML, gaining the Prime Ministerial post in an arrangement that guarantees him two and a half years in the post before handing it over to Mr. Oli for the rest of the government’s tenure.
In the bargain, Mr. Oli’s UML landed the Speaker’s post in the new House of Representatives thanks to the support of the Maoists. Mr. Dahal also gained support from other parties including the royalist Rashtriya Prajatantra Party (14 seats) and the freshly formed Rashtriya Swantantra Party (20 seats) in a new coalitionnow clearly led by the UML. Mr Oli later claimed that per their understanding,Mr. Dahal would support the UML’s candidate of choice in the forthcoming presidential election.
In an uncanny political twist, Mr. Dahal won the vote of confidence in Nepal’s Assembly in January 2023 with a staggering 268 votes in his favour, including those of the Nepali Congress party, in Opposition. The Nepali Congress decided to support Mr. Dahal to retain the possibility of its candidate getting the Maoists’ support in the Presidential elections.
The lead-up to the presidential elections
Following the NC’s support in the trust vote, Mr. Dahal announced his support for the former’s presidential candidate Ram Chandra Poudel in the March 9 election, breaking with his new alliance partner, the UML, which had nominated former Speaker Subas Nembang.
Prime Minister Dahal’s sudden “volte-face” resulted in a fresh rift with the UML leading to the withdrawal of Mr. Oli’s party from the post-poll alliance. The royalist RPP has also quit the government. The RSP withdrew its Ministers from the government — its leader Rabi Lamichchane had to resign after a Supreme Court ruling on his citizenship issue earlier this year — but assured support to the government from the outside.
A new power-sharing deal is now in the works between the Nepali Congress, the Maoists and the Unified-Socialists led by former PM Madhav Nepal—all of whom had been part of the pre-election alliance in the first place. But the party leaders have hinted that their first priority remains the Presidential elections (to be held on March 14).
A spokesperson for the Nepali Congress told the Kathmandu Post that a power-sharing deal will be negotiated after a new trust vote that is expected to follow these elections. Since Nepal is under an election code of conduct until March 19, the vote of confidence cannot be held until the presidential and vice-presidential elections wrap up. The Cabinet reshuffle will also not happen before March 19.
With the support of eight political parties, it is almost certain that Mr. Poudel will win the presidential election.
A carousel of Prime Ministers
Nepal was declared a Republic in 2008, and since then, the country has seen three Prime ministers from the NC – G.P. Koirala, Sushil Koirala, and Mr. Deuba (two times), two Prime Ministers from the Maoists – Mr. Dahal (three times), and Mr. Bhattarai, and three Prime Ministers from the UML – Mr. Nepal, Jhala Nath Khanal, and Mr. Oli (two times). Chief Justice Khil Raj Regmi was also appointed the caretaker Prime Minister of Nepal in 2013.
The latest Oli-Dahal coalition was not the first time the two former Prime Ministers came together to run the country. The UML had “merged” with the Maoists into a new Nepal Communist Party in 2018 when Mr. Oli was the Prime Minister. That broke down in 2020 leading to the de-merger of the NCP into its original constituents - the UML and the Maoists—and a split within the UML leading to the formation of the Unified-Socialists with Mr. Nepal and Mr. Khanal.
Mr. Dahal previously served as the Prime Minister of Nepal in 2008-09 and 2016-17. Mr Dahal’s political opportunism is symbolic not just of the Maoists’ constant jostling for power but also of the nature of politics that has characterised Nepal’s transition from a monarchy to a republic, with parties seeking different alliances to stay in power, irrespective of ideological differences.
Currently, Mr. Dahal is leading a minority government where 16 Cabinet positions are vacant. According to the provisions of Nepal’s constitution, he needs to seek a vote of confidence within thirty days of a party withdrawing its support to the government. The election code of conduct also prevents the coalition from discussing and forming a small Cabinet with one or two Ministers from partner parties, PTI reported.
