That the Special Counsel investigation, into whether Donald Trump and his associates colluded with Russians in their (the Russians’) attempts to meddle in the 2016 presidential election, found no evidence of collusion, is indeed a significant and positive outcome from Mr. Trump’s perspective.
However, the conclusions of Robert Mueller’s probe and Attorney-General William Barr’s four-page summary of it to Congress on Sunday raise more questions than they answer. Legal and political battles around the conduct of Mr. Trump and his associates in the run-up to and following the 2016 election will continue in Washington and beyond.
In a deeply-divided country, there are those who are convinced that wrong was done and those that are convinced that Mr. Trump’s characterisation of the process as a ‘witch-hunt’ was indeed accurate.
The President and his inner circle are, not surprisingly, projecting the revelations as a complete victory. “No Collusion, No Obstruction, Complete and Total EXONERATION. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!” Mr. Trump tweeted. While the ‘no collusion’ finding is a boost for the President, Mr. Trump is incorrect to call this a “total exoneration”. The report, as per the summary from Mr. Barr, does not give Mr. Trump a clean chit with regard to obstruction of justice allegations (i.e., concerns that the President interfered with the investigations around him, such as by firing then FBI Director James Comey in April 2017).
“While this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him,” Mr. Barr quoted the report as saying.
The obstruction issue
Significantly, Mr. Barr and Deputy-Attorney-General Rod Rosenstein have decided that the evidence from the investigation is “not sufficient to establish that the President committed an obstruction-of-justice offense.”
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer questioned Mr. Barr’s suitability to make such a decision on Sunday. “Given Mr. Barr’s public record of bias against the Special Counsel’s inquiry, he is not a neutral observer and is not in a position to make objective determinations about the report,” they said in a statement.
Sunday’s conclusions are likely to be just the start of another round of battles in Washington. Congressman Jerrold Nadler, who heads the powerful House Judiciary Committee (it has impeachment processes in its portfolio), denied that Mr. Trump was exonerated by the Mueller findings. Mr. Barr was picked to be Attorney-General by Mr. Trump in December 2018, as the Mueller probe was winding down — Democrats have repeatedly questioned Mr. Barr’s objectivity. On Sunday, Democrats reiterated a need for the entire Mueller Report and its supporting documents to be released.
Additionally, top Democrats, including Mr. Nadler, on Sunday, asked Mr. Barr to appear before the a House panel “without delay”.“These shortcomings in today’s letter [Mr. Barr’s summary letter] are the very reason our nation has a system of separation of powers,” they said.
In addition, the House Judiciary Committee had sent 81 individuals and organisations requests for information earlier this month as it embarked on an investigation into the President and his associates. This means the investigations around Mr. Trump and his inner circle will continue. It also means, regardless of the specific outcomes, information will be gathered that will be used as part of the Democrats’ campaign in 2020 — to characterise the current administration.
Leverage for GOP
But these events and processes are also likely to be used by the GOP and Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump, who will, in all probability, face the polls in 2020, is likely to make the “witch-hunt”, as he has called the Mueller probe, into a campaign issue. The White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders tweeted on Sunday, “A great day for America and for President @realDonaldTrump. After two years of wild anti-Trump hysteria, the President and his millions of supporters have been completely vindicated.” What is significant is the extension of the victory beyond Mr. Trump and his circle to his “millions of supporters”.
The GOP has, by and large, stood by the President, including most recently his controversial declaration of a national emergency for a border wall — where only 12 of 51 Republican Senators joined their Democrat colleagues in overturning the emergency. While some congressional Republicans have repeatedly and openly questioned Mr. Trump or the administration’s policies, as above and for instance with the way in which the relationship with Saudi Arabia and its Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman has developed after journalist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered last October, they have mostly towed the party line, both in terms of numbers and in terms of the issues; the wall, Michael Cohen’s public Congressional hearings and the appointment of justices to the Supreme Court (notably Brett Kavanaugh) and higher courts, to name a few. The Mueller probe gives Republicans who have been conflicted, at least publicly, between risking alienating their Republican constituents versus going along with some of what could be damaging longer-term to the party, the perfect opportunity to huddle together as one GOP and use what the report found — or did not find — as leverage in the battles that are just beginning.
Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Republican Lindsey Graham had said before the Report’s findings were out that if the Mr. Mueller did not find evidence of collusion , the matter should be put to rest. On Sunday, he reiterated that position.
Mr. Graham is not likely to stop there but to call some of the dramatis personae of the last two years to testify before his panel, as he has suggested in the past. For instance, former FBI Director Mr . Comey is likely to be questioned by Mr. Graham and Republicans on whether they misused their powers to spy on the Trump campaign.
“So may questions,” Mr. Comey had tweeted on Sunday, with a picture of himself looking up at a bunch of trees (perhaps he was alluding to the idea of “ missing the forest for the trees”). In response , Mr. Graham, tweeted, “Could not agree more. See you soon.”
The Mueller probe may have concluded, but it is just one event — albeit a central and significant one — in the saga of the Trump presidency. More than a dozen federal and State investigations around Mr. Trump and his associates are under way. These are looking into potential campaign finance violations foreign donations, tax violations and so forth. Mr. Trump’s troubles are far from over.
