The reluctance of the Syrian government to initiate a ceasefire in its conflict with the armed opposition has emerged as a new impediment in the way of the enforcement of a peace plan marshalled by Kofi Annan, the special envoy of the United Nations and the Arab League on Syria.
Fearing that the opposition could take advantage of its restraint if it stopped shooting first, Syria's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Jihad Makdisi, said on Friday that troops will pull out from the conflict zone “once peace and security prevail”. “The presence of the Syrian Arab army in Syrian cities is for defensive purposes [so] as to protect the civilians,” he observed.
Mr. Makdisi's remarks that Syria was not is a position to initiate a ceasefire right away are not in line with Mr. Annan's expectations. On Friday, Ahmad Fawzi, Mr. Annan's spokesman was unambiguous in stating that the U.N. special envoy's plan “specifically asks the government to withdraw its troops, to cease using heavy weapons in populated centres”. He added: “The very clear implication here is that the government must stop first and then discuss a cessation of hostilities with the other side and with the mediator.”
Analysts point out that with the mistrust between the government and the foreign supporters of the armed opposition running deep, the Syrian government was likely to pause and take stock of the situation before implementing Mr. Annan's plan. In his first statement after agreeing to Mr. Annan's six-point plan, anchored around a ceasefire and the flow of humanitarian supplies, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has said that he wants greater clarity on the details. “Syria has informed Annan of its approval on the plan with some remarks,” Mr. Assad said. However, he called for “comprehensive consultations” on the details before the plan could be enforced.
The Syrian regime's reluctance to enforce a ceasefire first could also be an expression of its growing confidence in successfully warding off a regime change attempt, analysts say. “The battle to topple the state is over,” Mr. Makdisi said. “Our goal now is to ensure stability and create a perspective for reform and development in Syria while preventing others from sabotaging the path of reform.”
Despite its reservations to act unilaterally, the Syrian regime, nevertheless, can ill-afford to delay enforcement of a ceasefire indefinitely. Russia and China — two countries that have blocked moves in the United Nations Security Council to topple Mr. Assad — are signalling that they want the Syrian government to implement Mr. Annan's plan soon. “We hope the Syrian government will implement their commitments as soon as possible,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei observed. The United Nations peacekeeping department is also preparing to send a team to Damascus to work out details of a possible ceasefire observer mission.
Meanwhile, the Syrian opposition and its supporters among the Arab and western countries are set to meet on Sunday in Istanbul for a “friends of Syria” meeting. This conference, which follows an earlier meeting in Tunis, is no longer expected to call for Mr. Assad's exit. Instead, it is likely to focus on the swift implementation of Mr. Annan's six-point plan. Observers say that with the opposition fighters losing initiative on the ground, the conclave could seek acceptance of “a daily two-hour humanitarian pause”, as an interim measure, before all fighting stops.
