Alok Deshpande writes:
This promises to be a battle like no other. Known alliances have come apart, and new equations face the test of survival. More than half the State’s population is set to vote in next month's municipal corporation and zilla parishad elections, being seen as ‘mini-Assembly’ polls. Held halfway into the Devendra Fadnavis-led government's five-year tenure, the results will unarguably impact the 2019 Assembly elections.
Shifting power equations
The greatest impact will be felt by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). For decades (25 years in Mumbai), it was part of a ruling alliance with the Shiv Sena.
This time, though, the contours of the game have changed. Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray recently announced an electoral split with the BJP, and his decision to go it solo. As a result, the Opposition Congress and NCP are likely to forge an alliance to consolidate anti-BJP and anti-Sena votes.
The lack of a poll alliance may cause the BJP some pain. Barring Nagpur, the party does not control any of the 10 municipal corporations going to the polls. The BJP has always been credited with urban appeal; yet, of the four major parties in Maharashtra, it has the least corporators at 205, while the NCP, Congress and the Sena have 265, 264 and 227 respectively.
In the 25 poll-bound ZPs, the BJP has only 165 councillors. The NCP has 511, the Congress 419 and Sena, 243.
Political observers say the split was only a matter of time. “The BJP enjoys [what is] possibly the height of its political strength and does not want to miss an opportunity to win the Mumbai civic polls without the Sena’s help. The Sena, on the other hand, is aware of the snub from the BJP. For them, it is time, ahead of the 2019 Assembly polls, to reassemble its strength across the State,” Dr. Surendra Jondhale, Professor and Head of Department, Civic and Politics, University of Mumbai, said.
Resting on laurels
The BJP’s confidence could be stemming from its performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, in which the Sena-BJP combine and its allies won 42 of 48 seats. In the Assembly elections, the BJP and Sena took first and second place respectively (they fought independenty), and the BJP alone accounted for nearly 30% of the votes.
Not everyone is confident it can pull off a repeat performance in the civic polls. In the 2012 BMC elections, it won just 8.64% of votes cast, while the Sena garnered 21.85% and the Congress 21.23%. Given these numbers, the Sena believes its former alliance partner is being “over-ambitious”.
“People may not vote for you in the civic elections, though they have done so in the Lok Sabha polls. One cannot seek a 50-50 division of seats on the basis of just one election,” said Sena MLC Anil Parab, who was part of the delegation that held discussions with the BJP.
The party is rapidly losing its popularity, said NCP’s Maharashtra unit chief Sunil Tatkare. “If the 2014 voting percentages were applicable, the party should have won 90% of the municipal councils two months ago. But it won the presidential post in only 64 of 180 councils.”
Sena has its own plans
Meanwhile, the Sena is aching to spread its wings. In his Republic Day speech, Mr. Thackeray blamed the alliance for the party’s lack of rural influence and a restricted presence in the State.
For long, the Sena has faced criticism for its Mumbai- and Thane-centric politics. While most leaders are busy campaigning, a handful of its leaders have chosen to venture out. With a clear mandate from Matoshri, the party is eyeing the 2019 Assembly polls, and several party leaders have expressed their desire to see Mr. Thackeray as the next CM.
A weak Opposition
A reason why the Sena can afford to take on the BJP is lacklustre performance by the Congress and NCP. Infighting, ego clashes and the lack of charismatic leadership have wrecked their prospects. While the Congress still has its voter base and an advantage in rural areas, it faces an aggressive BJP. In addition, the rise of the Owaisi brothers’ MIM may cost the Congress its Muslim vote bank, as was seen in the council polls.
Similarly, NCP leaders are facing corruption charges which threaten to dilute the assertive leadership of former Deputy CM Ajit Pawar. Many cadres have moved to the BJP.
In urban areas the polls may turn into a Sena-versus-BJP fight and later into an alliance for power, as seen in the 2015 Kalyan Dombivli Municipal Corporation elections. “We are hopeful about the alliance with the Congress in as many areas as possible. The BJP is not as strong as it wants people to believe and I am sure it can be defeated with the alliance of secular parties,” Mr. Tatkare said. It remains to be seen if their alliances will breach known strongholds.
Solo in the big city
Hepzi Anthony writes:
Mumbai: This is the first election post-demonetisation in India’s financial capital. It is also the first post-alliance election, with both the ‘saffron’ and ‘secular’ alliances broken and all the political parties testing their political strengths on their own. The BMC election is being viewed as a mini-Assembly.
Shiv Sena
Prior to 1989, the Shiv Sena did contest elections alone under founder Bal Thackeray. But even then, it had the clandestine support of the then-ruling party, the Congress, which hoped the Sena would counter the increasing strength of the unions. Now, for the first time, party president Uddhav Thackeray is taking on the collective might of the State and Central governments.
“Shiv Sena is currently the only cadre-based party and seems to have its base intact,” said Prof. Sudhakar Solomonraj, HoD, Political Science, Wilson College. “So, they are likely to benefit from the break-up [between the Sena and the BJP].” Senior journalist Ajay Vaidya says, “No other party seems to have invested enough in cadres. The Sena will also benefit from the core Marathi voter base that had earlier deserted it for the MNS and is now disillusioned with it.”
Bharatiya Janata Party
In 2014, the party won most Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, and then the Assembly elections. Last year, it followed up with gains in the zilla parishad elections. Now, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is staking his reputation in the BMC polls.
“This poll could be seen by the BJP as a validation of their national success; they might also try to link it with demonetisation,” said Kannamma Raman, retired HoD, Political Science, Mumbai University. Mr. Vaidya says, “While the BJP is trying to woo the non-Marathi voter base, like the North Indians, Marwaris and Gujaratis, these trading communities are upset with the BJP due to demonetisation.”
Indian National Congress
Factional spats are out in the open.; such cadres as it has have fled; and there seems to be a complete lack of support from the party’s central leadership. The Mumbai Congress seems like a sinking ship. Mumbai chief Sanjay Nirupam will need a miracle.
“The Congress needs to win just to show that they are still alive and going,” says Ms. Raman.
Nationalist Congress Party
The party does not have a significant presence. With open infighting, factionalism, rallies against their own leaders at party headquarters, it seems a lost cause.
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena
Raj Thackeray’s charisma and oratorial skills helped him win 27 seats in the 2012 BMC polls. Since then, he hasn’t been able to handle his own party: a large number of footsoldiers and corporators have defected to greener pastures. The MNS does not seem to have even nuisance value now. “The leadership does not seem to have direction and its cadres are demoralised,” said Mr. Solomonraj.
AIMIM and SP
Both parties are eyeing the city’s 20% Muslim population and could eat into Congress and NCP votes.
The others
The Communist parties, the Peasants and Workers Party, Dr. Prakash Ambedkar’s Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh are joining hands. Ramdas Athawale’s Republican Party of India is in alliance with the BJP. Independents and rebels could spoil it for the big parties. (In 2012, 28 independents won.)
Churn in the west
Shoumojit Banerjee writes:
Pune: An ascendant BJP swept all eight segments of the Pune district in the 2014 Assembly elections. Now, bolstered by a number of heavyweight defectors, it is determined to dislodge the NCP’s grip on the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) and the Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC). But the NCP and the Congress, erstwhile coalition partners, have a formidable presence in the rural heartland, thanks to the sugar industry, the credit co-operative societies and co-operative banks, all controlled by party members. Both parties are confident of retaining their bastions, relying on issues like demonetisation to hit BJP.
In the 2012 civic elections, the NCP won its second consecutive landslide in the PCMC, securing 81 of 128 seats; the BJP got a paltry three. It also became the single-largest party in the PMC, with 51 of 152 seats. But with top leaders like Mahesh Landge, Yashwant Bhosale and Azam Pansare switching allegiances to the BJP, the NCP’s position is now shaky; but it will take a major effort by the BJP to better its tally in the PCMC.
The PMC has traditionally had a history of closely-fought contests and more infamously, alliances like the bizarre ‘Pune Pattern’ of 2007 in which the NCP joined hands with the Sena and the BJP to keep the Congress out of power. The BJP will look to capitalise on the whittled-down positions of the Congress and the MNS.
While the MNS had performed surprisingly well in the last PMC elections, emerging as the second-largest party, ahead of the Congress and the BJP, its strength has been diminished following a spate of defections, with four of its six sitting corporators in one Assembly segment (Shivajinagar) changing colours.
In Pune, the BJP’s strategy has been to induct candidates with realistic chances of winning. In practice, this has implied welcoming out-and-out criminals like gangster Vitthal Shelar. For the NCP, the stratgey will be to tom-tom its development works in the two municipalities, while accusing the BJP of importing unprincipled turncoats.
In other parts of the State, the MNS has been hit the hardest by the BJP juggernaut after the 2014 general and Assembly elections.
In Nashik, the BJP had wrested all three Assembly seats from the MNS in 2014. The arrests of top NCP leaders Chhagan Bhujbal and Devidas Pingle has the party on the backfoot.
To the BJP’s advantage
Pavan Dahat writes:
Nagpur: Shiv Sena workers lit firecrackers at the party office on Friday, delighted that their leader, Uddhav Thackeray, had decided to go it alone in the civic elections.
But it is the BJP’s cadre who have more reason for celebration. After all, why share the Vidarbha pie when you can keep it for yourself? Since the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, when it won all ten seats in the region, it has dominated every election here. It won 44 of 62 seats (11 out of 12 in Nagpur district) in the Vidhan Sabha, and did well in the recent municipal council and nagar panchayat elections.
Among the three municipal corporations and several zilla parishads, election to the Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) will take centre stage.
For the BJP, the Orange City isn’t just the State’s winter capital; it is also the party’s spiritual centre and hometown to Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union minister Nitin Gadkari. Both leaders have already made it a prestige issue and have promised to win more than 100 of the 151 seats. The BJP has ruled the NMC for the last 10 years, and their strong organisational network, the presence of Mr. Fadnavis and Mr. Gadkari, and a fractured opposition have negated any anti-incumbency.
The Congress, the BJP’s only serious rival in the NMC over the years, is a party divided with bickering groups led by former MP Vilas Muttemwar, former State Cabinet minister Satish Chaturvedi, Nitin Raut and Anees Ahmed. But district president Vikas Thakre claims the ‘perception’ of different camps may have arisen out of competition within. “Our party is united and we will win handsomely, because the BJP has done nothing for the city in last ten years.”
Improvement to infrastructure, though, is visible across the city: new roads, the Metro railway, new pipelines.
Neighbouring Amravati is a Congress and NCP stronghold, but the political situation is currently fluid. As recently as January 27, an NCP leader and four corporators defected to the BSP. These last-minute defections have complicated the situation, and a clear picture is likely only after the NCP and Congress decide on an alliance.
In Akola, the ruling BJP has to resolve open infighting between MLA and Minister of State Ranjeet Patil and MP Sanjay Dhotre. The fate of this civic body will also depend on how well Prakash Ambedkar’s Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh does.
In Wardha, the BJP suddenly found itself in a dominating position in 2014, when senior politician Dutta Meghe and his family crossed over from the Congress. While there is infighting in the district unit to sort out, the party looks like it will win here.
