The Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, has forecast that a fresh low pressure area (LPA) is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal and the adjoining Andaman Sea around November 16.
Additional Director General of Meteorology, RMC, Chennai, S. Balachandran said that the LPA was likely to form around that date. It might be delayed by a day or two. “We are watching the Bay and since many factors are to be taken into account. It is not possible to have a long lead for weather predictions,” he said.
Senior meteorologist Y.E.A. Raj said that if the northeast Monsoon was strong, systems could come like a train. Since the current LPA was a weak system, there was no need to be bothered about gap between the systems. Chennai is likely to have clear weather after two days and the rest of the State one day after that. “It is too early to comment on the formation, but factors now show that it is a possibility so we have to wait and see how it pans out,” he said.
Asked about the factors that influence the formation of a system in the Bay, he said for a cyclonic storm, several major factors were required including warm sea surface temperatures (at least 26.5 degree Celsius), atmospheric instability, high levels of humidity in the lower to middle levels of the troposphere, a pre-existing low-level focus or disturbance, and low vertical wind shear. Such systems usually form 5 degree north of the equator, he added.
Weather blogger Pradeep John said due to the pull effect, when the moisture is pulled up to the clouds, the State is likely to have rain till Monday after which we will have a break. The next low is likely to come to the Tamil Nadu coast around November 19 or 20.