This northeast monsoon is likely to be normal over Tamil Nadu this year, according to the Meteorological Department.
In a forecast released on Wednesday, the department said the probability of a normal monsoon is likely to be between 90 and 100 per cent over the State of its long period average (LPA).
The LPA is arrived at from the average rainfall received during the past 50 years between 1951 and 2000. The LPA of Tamil Nadu for the northeast monsoon is 438.2 mm.
According to S.B. Thampi, Deputy Director-General of Meteorology, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, the possibility of normal rainfall may be close to 95 per cent of the LPA over the State. The rainfall is not likely to exceed 440 mm this year. “However, it is too early to forecast specific details about different locations or date regarding the onset of monsoon. It can be predicted only five days ahead of the monsoon,” he said. Normally, the monsoon sets in around October 20.
The monsoon is crucial as the State receives 48 per cent of its annual rainfall during this season.
The weather model suggests that weak La Nina conditions over the equatorial east pacific may help to maintain normal rainfall, officials said.
