If your winter wear has been left in the cold since January began, it hasn’t been the first such instance. As new studies and analyses are increasingly providing evidence of winters getting warmer, India Meteorological Department (IMD) data too shows that Bengaluru has been witnessing a hotter January. The hottest days in the month have all been in the last decade.
As on Saturday, when Sankranti was celebrated, the maximum temperature in the city was 30.2° Celsius — 3° degrees above normal. The minimum temperature was 17.4° Celsius, 2° above normal.
The all-time record for the hottest January day was 33.4° Celsius on January 31, 2020, according to the IMD’s extreme weather events data. The 10 hottest days were all between 2012 and 2021, curiously in ascending order — the hottest day has been seeing a rise each year. The last recorded hottest January day was on January 22, 2021 — 31.1° Celsius.
As per the climatological table for the city from 1981 to 2010, the daily maximum temperature for January is 27.9° Celsius, and the minimum, 15.8° Celsius.
The recently released ‘Statement on Climate of India during 2021’ by the IMD’s Climate Research and Services had said that the annual mean land surface air temperature averaged over India during 2021 was 0.44° Celsius above the long period average (LPA) based on 1981-2010 period, making 2021 the fifth warmest year since nationwide records commenced in 1901.
“However, this is lower than the highest warming observed over India during 2016 when it was 0.71° Celsius above the LPA. The winter (January to February) and post-monsoon (October to December) seasons with all-India mean temperature anomalies (Actual-LPA Temperature) of +0.78° Celsius and +0.42° Celsius, respectively, mainly contributed to this warming,” the report stated.
In another study, the Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy has said that over the next three decades, Karnataka is projected to experience warmer weather and an increase in heavy rainfall events. The study showed that in the last three decades (1991–2019), there has been an increase in the summer maximum temperature by 0.18° Celsius to 0.61° Celsius and the winter minimum temperature by 0.3° Celsius to 0.65° Celsius in different districts of Karnataka.
“Climate change projections using an ensemble of models for the next 30 years (2021–2050) under moderate emissions and high emissions scenarios indicate a much warmer and wetter future for Karnataka. An increase in summer maximum temperature by 0.5° Celsius to 1.5° Celsius with a majority of the districts projected to warm by 1° Celsius to 1.5° Celsius, particularly under the high emissions scenario,” the study had stated.
