By 2030, the number of vehicles in Bengaluru is estimated to increase from 5.7 million to 8.9 million, and that of electric vehicles (EVs) from 75,000 to 2.3 million. Although there will be 3.2 million more vehicles, the addition of 2.2 million EVs is expected to prevent approximately 3.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
While the CO2 emissions are expected to increase by 25%, nitrogen oxides are expected to increase by 13% and particulate matter (PM) emissions by 8%, said the study ‘Bengaluru 2030: Impact of EVs on Vehicular Emissions’ conducted by the Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP).
Registration data
The study obtained the on-ground vehicle stock in the last 20 years (2001-2021) and considered the Transport Department’s vehicle registration data to estimate the population of on-road vehicles. It also accounted for vehicles which were retired or slated for retirement through projections.
“The vehicle population was projected to the horizon year (2030) by extending the past growth trends in each vehicle class. The projections revealed that the on-road vehicle stock grows 1.5 times at an overall growth rate of 5%. During the same period, the city’s EV fleet is projected to grow at a weighted average compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 56%,” said a press release from CSTEP. (The horizon year of 2030 is when electric vehicles are expected to become the dominant form of transportation.)
While two-wheeler EVs are expected to see the most significant growth (20 lakh vehicles by 2030), it would be followed by four-wheelers (1.4 lakh) and three-wheelers (1.3 lakh). “If this growth is sustained till the horizon year, 100% EV sales penetration can be witnessed in 2030 for all vehicle classes except for four-wheelers.”
Reducing emissions
Further, the study has found that the deployment of these EVs with zero tailpipe emissions would be equivalent to the removal of 4.85 million conventional two-wheelers plying in the city, thereby reducing the emissions. “The increased adoption of electric two-wheelers can help curb tailpipe emissions for all three pollutant classes from these vehicles. However, four-wheelers would remain the largest source of emissions, as e4Ws showed the lowest penetration among all analysed vehicle classes,” the study said.
The report has also determined the overall impact on the electrical grid managed by Bangalore Electricity Supply Company (Bescom). The report said that the energy requirement for the projected EV fleet of 2.34 million, approximately 6.2 million units of electricity would be needed to meet the daily energy requirement for charging.
“Currently, 55% of Bescom’s energy mix is generated from thermal power plants. To ensure a completely green transition, a combination of renewable energy sources, such as solar, wind, biomass, and hydro, available in Karnataka should be used for power generation. For instance, to fulfil the charging requirements of all projected EVs, 1.37 GW of rooftop solar installations (total rooftop area of 16.4 sq km) will be sufficient, which is an achievable target considering the city’s rooftop solar potential of 3.2 GW,” the study recommended.
