With the second highest number of active cases in the country after Pune, Bengaluru contributes over 4.5% of India’s 9,60,969 active cases (as of September 26).
Among the mega cities – Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Ahmedabad, Kolkata and Chennai – where the total active case load shot up from 93,404 on August 29 to 1,21,341 on September 26, Bengaluru with 43,378 had the highest, accounting for 36%. Mumbai and Delhi contributed 24% each, Chennai’s share was 9% while the share of Ahmedabad and Kolkata was 4% each.
Bengaluru. whose active cases stood at 37,315 as on August 29, saw the highest growth in case load in September. The tech capital added 6,063 active cases in a span of four weeks, taking the number to 43,378 as on September 26.
Moving growth rate
From 34,224 active cases on August 22, cases jumped to 37,315 on August 29, which amounts to a 9% rise in the seven-day moving growth rate (MGR). Subsequently, on September 5, the number of cases further rose to 41,479 (11.2% MGR). In the week ending on September 12, the number of active cases came down marginally to 40,929 (-1.3% MGR) only to rise to 41,434 (1.2%) on September 19. As on September 26, the number of active cases is 43,378 (4.7%).
According to an analysis by Project Jeevan Raksha, a public-private partnership initiative involving Public Health Foundation of India, Indian Medical Association and Proxima, a management consulting firm, among the mega cities, only Kolkata saw cases declining in the last one month.
According to epidemiologists, an increase in MGR will lead to a decrease in the number of days taken to double COVID-19 cases. A decrease in MGR will increase the doubling period, indicating that the infection is spreading at a slower pace.
BBMP Commissioner N. Manjunath Prasad attributed the rise in the number of cases in Bengaluru to increased testing. “From around 4,000 tests per day earlier, we are now conducting an average of 25,000 per day. By next week, we are planning to increase the number of tests to around 40,000 per day. What is important is that the test positivity rate (TPR) and Case Fatality Rate (CFR) has almost remained the same since August,” he said.
Mysore Sanjeev, convenor of Jeevan Raksha, said an increase in active cases indicates that the containment management strategy is not effective enough to control the spread of the virus. “This also reflects that the recently infected are needing more time to recover. This will lead to an increase in the burden on the healthcare infrastructure, which is already stressed. One of the serious aspects of an increase in active cases is that mortality will also increase,” he said.
Since August 29, Bengaluru has witnessed 910 deaths, which is the second highest among the six mega cities. Mumbai had reported the highest, with 1,154 deaths during the same period.
