On Monday, the district recorded 189 COVID-19 cases, which is said to be the lowest in the last two months. From April to May, the district has seen an unprecedented increase in cases and has recorded over 75,000 cases within a span of about 60 days. The second wave has hit the district hard, but there appears to be a glimmer of hope, as since last one week, there has been a steady decline in cases. Normally, less number of tests would be conducted on Sundays and they vary between 3,000 and 4,000 and the positivity rate was only about 5%.
“Since the last one week, the positivity rate is hovering around 13%, which is a steep fall from the 30% to 40% rate that the district was recording, in the last two months,” said District COVID Special Officer and Principal of Andhra Medical College P.V. Sudhakar.
According to him, going by the trend of the district COVID graph, it appears that the positivity rate may drop to 5% by June 15 and to 1% by June-end.
Though it is too early to say that the curve is flattening, there is a positive trend and a lot depends on the enforcement of the partial curfew and behaviour of the people.
Focussed testing method
The district administration has adopted the focussed testing method, wherein they are targeting people who have come into contact with a positive case and people with fever and their family members. The idea is to identify them early to break the chain of spread, said Dr. Sudhakar.
A few senior doctors at the CSR block in KGH and VIMS, say that the partial curfew should be continued for at least three to four months to break the chain of spread and to keep the possible third wave at bay.
Right now till June 10, the partial curfew is from 12 noon to next day 6 a.m. It should not be removed immediately, but should be done in phases, they say.
Experts say that the relaxation period can be extended to 2 p.m. and then slowly to 6 p.m. They say that it should continue for at least three to four months, with a new model of 12 hours of curfew.
Speaking about the possible third wave, the doctors say that it can be expected in two to three months, after the lifting of the partial curfew. “But it depends on how and when we are lifting the curfew and behaviour of the people. If people again become complacent and neglect appropriate behaviour, then the third wave is imminent and we do not know in which mutated form the virus will strike. People have to be cautious and the enforcement agencies have to enforce it firmly but with an element of politeness,” said the Principal of Andhra Medical College.
The important factor in keeping the third wave away is vaccination. It all depends on how fast we vaccinate at least 50% of the eligible population, including the 18+ age group. “If we can inoculate at least 50% of the eligible population, including the 18+, which is close to 17 to 20 lakhs in the next two to three months, then we can ward of the third wave, by combining it with appropriate behaviour,” said Dr. Sudhakar.
But according to the Health Department, the vaccination programming is not going as desired. Make vaccines free for those who cannot afford and chargeable to those who can pay, said a senior doctor from KGH.
