Our intelligence failed to predict Bangladesh crisis, say experts

India needs to tread carefully in the coming months until it gets a better understanding of the situation in Bangladesh, say experts at a seminar organised by Centre for Policy Studies and Visakhapatnam Public Library

Published - August 15, 2024 08:10 pm IST - VISAKHAPATNAM

Commodore (Retd) C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the New Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies, addressing a seminar on the topic ‘India and Evolving Global Strategic Framework’ in Visakhapatnam on Thursday. Also seen are D.S. Varma of Visakhapatnam Public Library, Prof. Prasanna Kumar of CPS and senior journalist K.V. Prasad.

Commodore (Retd) C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the New Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies, addressing a seminar on the topic ‘India and Evolving Global Strategic Framework’ in Visakhapatnam on Thursday. Also seen are D.S. Varma of Visakhapatnam Public Library, Prof. Prasanna Kumar of CPS and senior journalist K.V. Prasad.

With the unfolding of the recent crisis in Bangladesh and the sudden change of guard, India is in a delicate position with its neighbours. It needs to rethink its neighbourhood strategy and evolve and develop on its own to become a credible political, economic and military power in the region, said Commodore (Retd) C. Uday Bhaskar, director of the New Delhi-based Society for Policy Studies.

Commodore Bhaskar and senior journalist K.V. Prasad were addressing a seminar jointly organised by Visakhapatnam-based Centre for Policy Studies and Visakhapatnam Public Library on Thursday. The duo spoke on the topic ‘India and Evolving Global Strategic Framework’.

Commodore Bhaskar pointed out that India now has to decide whether it wants to engage with China, and together become a force to reckon with, or take a firm stance against China on territorial issues.

“India has to manage the relationship cautiously, as China is a superior force when it comes to political, economic or military strength,” he said. “That is the reason I say that if India wants to be a credible force in this region, it has to develop on all the three fronts on its own and should be self-dependent,” said Commodore Bhaskar.

Speaking about the developments in Bangladesh, he said that the Indian intelligence had failed to warn the Central government about the developments in that country, despite being a neighbouring country.

Asked if the situation in Bangladesh would revert to a state of affairs that prevailed prior to its liberation in 1971, he said, “There are clear indications of such developments apropos Islamist forces and we have to now wait and watch how things shape up.”

However, he was uncertain whether there could be a hand in the ‘Deep State’ strategy of any foreign country. But he made it clear that if China now plays a key role and Bangladesh allows China to set up a naval base in some port like Chittagong, the entire dynamics in the Bay of Bengal could change for India.

“Bangladesh already operates submarines made by China and it would be very difficult for India to recognise the underwater signatures of submarines, whether they be Bangladeshi or Chinese. The entire maritime scenario will change,” he said.

Speaking about India and its ‘Evolving Global Strategic Framework’, he said that India has moved on from its days of the Non-Aligned Movement, and today is a global power to reckon with. But it needs to review its political, economic and military inadequacies to remain among the top three powers in the world, he said.

Mr. Prasad pointed out that it was time India re-visited its neighbourhood policy and took more control over the Indian Ocean Region. “Whoever controls the Indian Ocean Region, controls Asia,” he said.

“There is a need for more diplomatic, economic and security engagement and India has to take the lead,” Mr. Prasad said, concurring with Commodore Bhaskar that there was an intelligence failure on the Bangladesh issue and it was time that intelligence agencies collaborate and cooperate for better intelligence feedback.

“Our intelligence failed us during 26/11, Kargil, Galwan and now in the case of Bangladesh,” he said.

Cautioning that India needs to tread carefully in the next few months, he said that India should use the upcoming BIMSTEC meeting in Thailand to understand the scenario in Bangladesh and forge a better understanding.

Director of Centre for Policy Studies Prof. Prasanna Kumar and D.S. Varma of Visakhapatnam Public Library spoke.

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