The Telangana government under the stewardship of Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao is evaluating the economic impact of COVID-19 on the State and how it is expected to withstand it. The lockdown impact on every sector due of disruption in industrial productivity, production, supply chain issues across the nation is being studied carefully.
Officials who have been studying the economic recession the world and the country had gone through in the past decades and subsequent recovery indicated that there are several models of economic recovery like V shaped recovery, U shaped recovery, W shaped recovery et al.
A V-shaped recovery is characterised by a sharp economic decline followed by a quick and sustained recovery. A U-shaped recovery is a type of economic recession and recovery when metrics like employment, GDP and industrial input decline gradually and then gradually rise back over time, typically over a period of 12 to 24 months.
A W-shaped recovery, sources explained, begins like a V-shaped recession but then turns back down again after showing false signs of recovery. The W shaped recessions are also called double-dip recessions because the economy drops twice before the full recovery is achieved.
One really does not know what model of recovery will the country witness or if there will be any serious backlash like virus resurgence. “Unlike many other States, Telangana is in a better position,” B. Vinod Kumar, Vice-Chairman, State Planning Board, says.
He is optimistic that the State will be much better off than other States in facing and overcoming the economic impact.
“ My personal perception is the ongoing and the future infrastructure projects in the State for which tenders worth ₹20,000 crore to ₹25,000 crore were already floated and tied up for funds with the nationalised banks, will stand the State in good stead in this difficult period,” he says.
The execution of these infrastructure projects should not thus have any problem and they will put money back in circulation in the market in the form of labour and material components and they will also bring multi-fold revenue on consumption of variety of goods like iron, steel, sand, diesel etc. Chief Minister’s focus right from beginning on infrastructure projects will be a blessing for the State economy to take off again, he believes.
He, however, says the crisis be utilised by Telangana to give push to the manufacturing sector and seek Centre’s help to get such units to the State. Telangana is good in services sector, pharma sector, specially the pharma city coming up in a big way, and State has required manpower. Furniture is another potential sector to be encouraged in the country with Italy and China impacted by COVID-19 and Telangana also should be pro-active, he adds.
