The statistical parameters and the information in public domain in Telangana has shown a big variation over the past two months. We asked Raghupathy Anchala, who teaches epidemiology, research methods and operational research, how useful is the publicly available information and how it can be improved.
Can the information about COVID-19 spread have any use in understanding the exponential growth or flattening of the curve?
There is a lot of missing data to comment on the exponential growth or flattening of the curve. The number of tests done are not mentioned on many days since mid-April.
The number of positive or negative cases would depend on the number of tests that are performed on any given day.
We need to have data on doubling time and Ro (R nought or the mathematical term that indicates how contagious is the disease) so as to comment on the exponential growth or flattening of the curve. Ro is a concept that gives an indication about the expected number of cases that can arise from one case in a susceptible population.
What impact does limited information have on public health?
Publicly available complete information is mandatory to quell fear and panic in the population. We would also need data on the severity of cases. Clarity on number of asymptomatic, mild, moderate and severe cases would be required. Adding information on number of positive cases with data on age, gender, death rate, co-morbid conditions needs to be put upfront so that public is aware of these risk factors.
