As the Nuclear Suppliers Group preliminary meeting ended in Vienna, it is clear that India has broad based support amongst the 48 member group for its membership, but that China and a few other countries continue to block the consensus it needs ahead of the main plenary session in Seoul on June 24, 25. Speaking to The Hindu Diplomatic Editor Suhasini Haidar over the phone from Vienna , nuclear expert Mark Fitz Patrick of the International Instiute Strategic Studies says India’s chances are “possible but unlikely at present,” but much will depend on the next two weeks of lobbying internationally.
You have indicated that members who oppose India’s membership application are asking for a process based system. Could you explain what the mood inside the NSG meeting has been?
Well, I am not inside the meeting, and it is of course a closed door session, but I can give you my sense. Most of the countries that were not ready to accept India’s membership spoke of the need for a process rather than an exception for India. By process they mean a criteria based approach. And while most of them would agree that India meets the criteria they want, they would like that process be finalised, so Pakistan would also have a path by which to get membership in the future. This is the thinking of the countries that are right now not prepared to accepting India in.
The NSG doesn’t work by majority, but by consensus of course, so it isn’t strictly a numbers game, but how many of the 48 members would be a part of this group?
My understanding is that the number of countries that raised questions during the session was in the single digits, so maybe nine. I am not sure, but not more than nine.
There are countries like Switzerland and Mexico who have changed their position on India in the past week, and diplomats are hoping for some kind of a ‘domino effect’ on the others. Do you see that happening?
It is possible, and I am sure that between now and the plenary (June 24-25), arms will be twisted. United States has made a commitment to PM Modi to support this. Letters have been written, telephone calls will be made, but it comes down to the strong opposition by China, and I don’t think arm twisting will work there. It will be a question of whether China’s concerns can be satisfied and I don’t know how that can be done without reaching some kind of a consensus on a process.
Did China express its opposition clearly at the meeting?
I don’t know what China said at the meeting as I wasn’t there but China is certainly among those not ready to accept India’s membership at this stage. Obviously China wants to allow for a Pakistani membership as well.
China has also made a point on India being a non-signatory to the NPT. Earlier you said that most of the members would accept that India fulfils the criteria they propose. Does that mean that NPT is no longer necessary for membership?
I think that is a fair assessment. They have already agreed to the waiver for India on the guidelines themselves. So accepting India without the NPT is possible, but it needs to be done in a way that is fair, so that future membership applications can be considered as well.
So according to you, does India still have a good chance at being granted the membership during the June plenary, or will it have to wait longer?
I think its possible, but unlikely. Because China would need to be satisfied. I think the US and India will have to find a way together to satisfy China.
