When Pradeep John refers to ‘Red Thakkali’, it has nothing to do with a recipe or a grocery list. It means intense thunderstorm.
The Chennai-based weather blogger — better known as Tamil Nadu Weatherman, thanks to his popular Facebook page with 6,67,000 members — has popularised weather forecasting as a hobby. And, in a country in the grip of a pandemic, a growing tribe of amateur forecasters are using their spare time to make predictions about this monsoon.
Fort Kochi during the monsoon
It helps that Pradeep has simplified and made the study of natural phenomena fun, with catchy terms like damal dumeel (loud thunder) and pichu pedal eduthufying (heavy rains). He believes the spike in cloud watchers, especially in Tamil Nadu, is because rain gets a lot of attention in the State, not just among people but in the media too. Especially after Chennai’s floods in 2015.
Now, on Facebook alone there are a bunch of groups — such as Chennai Weather Reports and Cyclone Forms, Kongunadu Weather Trackers, Weather of India and Weatherman Kerala Followers — with a formidable following. They tirelessly discuss all things weather, between perusing maps and images covered in colour-coded arrows.
Weather blogger Pradeep John
Over the last five years, Pradeep has noticed a surge in interest in this field. The reason he believes is because “In Tamil Nadu especially, rain is a matter of concern. Without rain there is the fear of drought and with rain there are floods. It is diversified and unique when you compare it to other parts of India,” he explains.
For Pradeep, (an employee at Tamil Nadu Urban Infrastructure Financial Services), the joy of watching rain got him interested in weather. “ The Hindu newspaper used to carry rainfall statistics for the season, MSLV chart... There was no Google then. I started collecting these images from the newspaper. This was way back in 1994 and I was in Class VII,” he recalls.
A map showing wind convergence in the coastal areas
By 2009, Pradeep discovered a few other enthusiasts online, some interested in clouds, some in rainfall. They got together and learned mutually. “In 2008 I had my own blog, Tamil Nadu Weatherman, but I also used to blog on websites like KEA Weather and Vagaries of the Weather. It was Rajesh Kapadia of Vagaries of the Weather who taught me how to start and go about things,” says Pradeep, who set up his Facebook page in 2014. (It rocketed to popularity during the 2015 floods.)
Weather forecasting is an interest that does not need any equipment or investment. “There are so many weathermen pages on social media now,” he says. One such, is Chengalpattu weather man started by 18-year-old Samuel Jauaraj in December 2019.
In 2012, when Cyclone Nilam made landfall near Mamallapuram, Samuel, watched wide-eyed as powerful winds swept across the land. “When I was a little older, I started my personal Facebook page to follow Pradeep John’s page and I started reading blogs about forecasting weather. I also used to follow SR Ramanan’s (former Director, Area Cyclone Warning Centre, Regional Meteorological Department) weather updates,” says Samuel.
Samuel Jauaraj
Every night between 10 pm to 1 am, Samuel sits at his computer learning about the weather system. He looks at satellite images, toggles between different web pages, while making notes in his diary. “I am trying to understand how it has been tracked in the last three decades,” says the first year student of Computer Engineering from SRM college.
Currently, his fledging Facebook page has nearly 500 followers. “Around 70% of the time, what I predict is accurate. Well, more than predicting, it’s just me inferring from various charts and models,” says Samuel. He relies on satellite images and portals like WeatherBug and Skymetweather.
Is there pressure to be correct all the time? After a nervous laugh, he answers, “Sometimes a few people ask why isn’t it raining, you said it would. But I am only a beginner.”
Eyes on the sky
Mumbai-based Rajesh Kapadia, one of India’s earliest weather bloggers, says that over the last three months he has received more queries, and viewership on his page — Vagaries of the Weather started in 2007 — has gone up by 40%.
Rajesh Kapadia
“With a lot of people working from home, time is not a factor now. While the older lot just wants to know what the weather is going to be like, people in the age group of 25-35 are keen to learn more,” says Rajesh. “They ask me why a low pressure is not forming or what are the basic things that prevent it, and I answer on my website, which has received more than three million hits.”
Rajesh has been an enthusiast ever since he was 12 and took trips to the IMD in Mumbai to look at the maps and charts. “Back then, the satellite images used to come just once a day at 4.30 pm,” he says.
It is a lot easier now, he adds, with wind charts, weather charts and satellite images available at a click. This could be another reason why interest is picking up. Or it could be the challenges that excite people. For example, Rajesh says that there are 16 parameters to look at for the South-West monsoon and eight to 10 for the North-East monsoon.
In his late 60s now, Rajesh, a retired industrialist, continues to keep himself updated. “Over the last few months, I took a few online courses from Harvard on Meteorology, Cyclone and Fronts,” he says. Pradeep too is of the opinion that it is important to stay updated constantly. He adds, “And experience helps too.”
