The last Bollywood film to release in 2016, Dangal , has been the most significant one of the year. Not in terms of its social impact, but rather in terms of its box office earnings, which could have a great impact on how 2016 fared. According to Girish Johar, film and trade business expert, the Aamir Khan film could well be a deciding factor. “Assuming the film does Rs. 300 crore, that will make the box office [earnings in 2016] at par to last year.” In the unlikely event Dangal doesn’t make the Rs. 300 crore it’s being expected to, the year would definitively hav been loss-making for the trade. As of today, according to Box Office India, the film has collected approximately Rs. 232.49 crore net within ten days of release. It’s a sorry state of affairs when an entire year has to depend on one film to know whether it breaks even.
What went wrong
During the last 12 months, Bollywood has intermittently seen big successes, at times a sole hit per month. “It’s been a mixed year and Dangal and Sultan have kept the industry stable on some level,” says Shailesh Kapoor who helms Ormax Media, a media firm specialising in trade insights. He adds that films like Fan and Mohenjo Daro , while expected to, couldn’t deliver.
There were several reasons contributing to 2016’s poor performance. In addition to the abysmally low number of hits, the year saw several sequels fare quite badly. In some cases, second instalments have been made to mildly popular first films, as in the case of Tum Bin 2 . On the other hand, some sequels riding on a film’s brand couldn’t create as much buzz as their predecessor. Case in point: Kahaani 2 . Worse still was the case of films that are part of sex comedy franchises, like with Great Grand Masti and Kya Kool Hai Hum 3 . “The sex and adult comedies have gone through their own fatigue,” says Kapoor.
Then there were releases featuring younger stars who did little to build a fanbase. Other than the likes of Ranveer Singh, the new lot have failed to pull crowds to theatres like their predecessors have done over the years. “There are many gaps, and if we are to see growth, we need actors and mass cinema to come out to balance out urban cinema which everyone seems to be making these days,” says Kapoor. Finally, there were box office shocks which no one could have foreseen: films like Fan , Fitoor , Befikre and Mirzya . They were thought to be bankableand should have raked in much, much more than they did.
Great expectations
Trade experts are tempering their anticipation, but there seems to be hope for the next year. There appears to be a veritable bag of content, covering everything from the niche to massy commercial cinema. “This year’s mix of films is [good] and it will help the box office,” says Amul Mohan, trade expert and Editor-in-chief of Super Cinema, who thinks that filmmakers have realised they need to reinvent the wheel to achieve a focused direction this year. “In 2017, that is something they are all constantly working on.” Plus, Mohan says the year looks good on paper even if you solely take into consideration the big budget superstar films that will release. First, there’s Shah Rukh Khan’s Raees right around the corner, guaranteed to rake in a certain amount of crores. Then there are two Salman Khan films to look forward to ( Tubelight and Tiger Zinda Hai ), getting Rs. 600 crore straightaway. Sanjay Leela Bhansali’s Padmavati is also expected to make at least
Rs. 150 crore. And let’s not forget the bevy of films from Akshay Kumar such as Jolly LLB 2, Hera Pheri 3, Pad Man and Toilet — Ek Prem Katha .
Indeed, there’s a string of big blockbusters expected to rake in crores next year. But Mohan says we need to look out for films like last year’s Pink and Neerja, which don’t have anything to lose. “When those films win, we have a great year,” he says. “Only then we will have a clearer idea of how everything is panning out.”
Trade journalist and columnist Sreedhar Pillai says that content is key. Even big stars are making a change. Dangal has proved that the country is interested in different content. “Masala films are dead,” says Pillai. “Look at Sultan ; it wasn’t a usual Salman Khan film with larger-than-life characters and commercial equations.” He says even Bahubali performed so well because it gave the audience something different. Pillai does agree that filmmakers will continue to make massy commercial cinema down south, but the Hindi film industry could see a huge shift in narrative.
Experts like Kapoor say that some of last year’s trends will spill over. Ever since Bhaag Milkha Bhaag in 2013, there’s been increasing interest in biopics or films inspired by true events. This was followed by 2014’s Mary Kom , and then last year’s Airlift, Neerja, MS Dhoni: The Untold Story, Azhar and Dangal . There’s a general interest going forward, one which looks at stories that be converted into films. “Many studios are actively pursuing people who are not so famous to see if they are interested in collaborating and telling their story on the big screen,” says Kapoor, adding that this trend will continue for the next few years. Take Raees , which is touted to be loosely based on criminal Abdul Latif’s life during prohibition in Gujarat. Another example is Akshay Kumar’s Pad Man which tells the story of Arunachalam Muruganantham, the inventor of the low-cost sanitary pad making machine.
Despite its low success rate, Bollywood will continue to pursue the sequel. The new year sees Jolly LLB 2 , albeit with a larger and more established cast. Also watch out for Commando 2 . An important film in 2017 will be David Dhawan’s Judwaa 2 , a remake of the 1997 blockbuster with Salman Khan acting as a pair of estranged twins. “We have not seen remakes [recently] and that could start a new trend,” says Kapoor.
Then there’s the exchange of cinema with the south that will perhaps snag some much-needed box office earnings for the industry.
This year, two massive south Indian films release across the country. There’s the sequel to Bahubali , which raked in Rs. 100 crore in the Hindi film market. Another is Rajnikanth’s 2.0 (sequel to 2010’s Robot ) which has Akshay Kumar as the primary antagonist.
Finally, even Hollywood will have to play its part with several Indian actors. Hoping to recreate The Jungle Book kind of hype is Baywatch with Priyanka Chopra, and xXx: Return of Xander Cage with Deepika Padukone. The intrigue and interest is probably enough to lure audiences to theatres, what with all the promotion that’s been shoved down their throats.
Need of the hour
While filmmakers will try their best to reinvent content or conform to set standards, there’s still a lot left to be done to help maximise box-office earnings. “The government should give us some benefits in their budget,” says Johar. “Especially in entertainment tax, which varies from state to state. The states with lower tax will make tickets cheaper for the audience.” It will certainly help increase dwindling footfalls. Trade and business experts are of the opinion that Indian cinema could very well be a powerful force which can bring the country a lot more revenue, if only the government offers assistance. After all, the industry can only go so far as to make films. The audience needs to have the money in order to patronise cinema.
Bleak as it may be, with everything from rising ticket prices to disappointing films and even general disinterest in visiting theatres, there’s still hope that 2017 will break the downward trend the box office is suffering.
