Prime Minister Narendra Modi's planned three-day sojourn in his parliamentary constituency of Varanasi between March 2 and 5, coinciding with the sixth and seventh phase of polls in Uttar Pradesh, is being seen by the BJP as a trip that could make a critical difference to the party's fortunes in the 111 seats of Eastern Uttar Pradesh in the fray.
Eastern Uttar Pradesh is considered crucial for any party that seeks power in the State, many saying whoever holds the area wins the state. It is also the home of the social engineering that the BJP effected in 2017, with alliances with Apna Dal and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj (SBSP) party, consolidating the non-Yadav OBC vote (nearly 35% of the votes in the State) to sweep the area. The narrative was that the Samajwadi Party had seen the overwhelming dominance of the Yadav community at the cost of the other OBCs, and that the BJP was willing to share power and welfare goodies with these groups. That consolidation is now under threat of being splintered by the Samajwadi Party trying to regroup as a larger OBC-Muslim umbrella party, with an alliance with former BJP ally, the SBSP, and poaching several OBC leaders, including three Ministers from the BJP.
Party and free grain
In Handia constituency, en route from Varanasi towards Prayagraj, Anara Devi who belongs to the Bind community finds no reason to change her vote, which she gave to sitting MLA Hakim Lal Bind who had won on a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ticket and is now, having shifted parties to the SP, the candidate from that party. “Yes we got free grains, one kilogram of salt, chana and cooking oil, but I don’t know anything about subsidy [for gas under Ujjwala Yojana]. He [Hakim Lal Bind] is from our area,” she said.
The BJP has fielded Prashant Kumar Rahul who belongs to the Nishad (another non-Yadav OBC community) from the area, and draws support from other communities, like that of Rakesh Vishwakarma who counts free grains and a house under the Pradhan Mantri Awaas Yojana as factors affecting his choice. Even on the question of stray cattle and Nilgai infestation hurting standing crops in the area, he has a ready answer : “Hamare paas na zameen hai na pashu,yeh hamari samasya nahin hai [I don’t own land or cattle, it is not a problem for me].”
The seat has a sizeable population of Binds, Yadavs and Muslims, with the SP poised to do well. But Mr Bind had won by a margin of a little over 8000 votes the last time around, defeating Apna Dal (BJP ally) Pramila Devi. The deciding vote will be of the Dalit community in the area numbering around 70,000 in a seat with around 4,00,000 voters. It is in such seats that Prime Minister Modi's appeal across categories and communities, not just Hindutva, and more importantly on the free grain and welfare programmes, is being counted on by the BJP.
The SP's poaching of 10 BJP leaders, including three Ministers belonging to the non-Yadav OBC sections, also created a piquant problem for the BJP. While the party has been combating the electoral challenges of these defections — for example, Swamy Prasad Maurya was attempted to be countered by poaching former Union Minister R.P.N. Singh from the Congress, forcing Mr. Maurya to change his seat from Padrauna to Fazil Nagar — it spooked the BJP enough not to do radical changes to its candidate list. Many MLAs with significant anti-incumbency against them were retained.
In Mohamadabad, in Ghazipur, sitting BJP MLA Alka Rai is coming up against Suhaib Ansari, nephew of mafia don-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari. At a Harijan tola in the constituency, Dalit voters, who all say they have received food grains and other benefits, have an issue with Ms. Rai who won the last poll with a margin of over a lakh.
"There was a fire in our tola, and Alka Rai hasn't yet bothered to visit us," said Sanjay Kumar. "Modiji ke liye maine yahaan se 210 vote padwaya thaa, Haathi ka garh hai ye tola (I had got 210 people to cast their vote for Prime Minister Modi, although this is the bastion of the BSP)," he said, adding that most of them will now go to BSP. In a two-cornered fight, even minute desertions may hurt. Mr. Kumar insists that he has no "malal" (hurt feelings) with regard to Mr. Modi, and may yet vote for him in 2024.
These are of course problems of samikaran (caste and community equations) which depend on the voter. The other problem for the BJP is from within.
MLAs’ waning clout
Within the BJP, there are organisational issues that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's three day stay may amileorate, according to a party worker. "Paanch saal tak vidhayak aur sanghathan ki koi aukaat hi nahin thi prashasan ke saamne [for five years, neither the MLA nor party office bearers had any clout with the officials in the administration]," said a Varanasi district BJP office-bearer. This is being put down to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's style of operation and his reliance on his administrative officers rather than his partymen to respond to people and their issues.
Party workers tell of the district general secretary of the BJP in Mau who went live on Facebook complaining that the district's government officials were not listening to him and threatened to protest and self harm. During the second wave of Corona, BJP MLAs had complained openly about not being able to provide any help either to their constituents or even their own family members as hospital beds and facilities went scarce. Party workers felt disempowered and the BJP's formidable electoral machinery may need prodding.
Through the second half of 2021, Prime Minister Modi has been leveraging the various moving parts of the BJP's campaign for Uttar Pradesh — be it development in the shape of the Poorvanchal Expressway and the launch of Ujjwala Yojana-II, or Hindu consciousness by way of the inauguration of the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor, or welfare programmes and touching upon law and order under the Yogi Adityanath government. In Eastern Uttar Pradesh, in the final push for the campaign, these moving parts are being sought to be brought together, in those three days in Varanasi.
