In a post-poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS, unemployment and lack of development appeared to be the key electoral issues for the voters in Tripura. When asked in an open-ended question, close to three in ten voters (27%) stated unemployment and a quarter (24%) mentioned lack of development as the most important voting consideration (Table 1).
A similar proportion of voters had stated lack of development as an electoral issue in the 2018 Assembly elections as well. However, what is interesting is that the issue of unemployment has seen a five-time increase since 2018 (5% to 27%). Moreover, 36% of the voters reported a decrease in employment opportunities since the BJP+IPFT government came to power in Tripura.
An equal proportion of voters (close to 30%) said that employment opportunities had either increased or remained the same. This issue of joblessness was also highlighted in a report published by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) in 2022 which showed that not only were figures for the unemployment rate in Tripura the highest among the northeastern States but also in double figures.
In 2018, the electoral issue was equally divided amongst those who wanted a change in government and those who wanted stability. Back then 12% of the voters stated a change of government as the biggest voting issue and 15% opted for stability or no change in government. However, in the present elections, joblessness and development were two burning issues for the voters in the State.
Interestingly, voter awareness of these issues did not work negatively for the BJP. Had it not been a triangular contest the issues of unemployment, poverty and lack of good governance could have hurt the BJP alliance because the proportion of those who stated these three as important electoral issues and voted for the Left alliance and TIPRA Motha combined is greater than those who voted for the BJP and its ally.
Our survey suggests that the BJP alliance was the most preferred by those who stated lack of development (44%) as the most important voting issue (Table 2). The BJP-IPFT alliance also had a slight advantage (of three percentage points) over the Left alliance amongst those who stated unemployment as the biggest issue.
Of those who said poverty, close to half (48%) voted for the Left alliance followed by the BJP (37%) and at a distant third for the TIPRA Motha (15%). Interestingly, those who stated lack of good governance as an important issue voted for the TIPRA Motha, suggesting a potential lack of trust in the national party/ alliance-led governments because of past experiences.
BJP’s campaign in the State revolved around development and the voters have rewarded them for the work done by the party in the State during its term in office. The data highlights that over two in five voters each stated that the development in the State had increased or remained the same in the last five years (Table 3). Only one in two claimed that the situation of development in the State had deteriorated. The BJP had a clear advantage amongst those who rated the development of the State under BJP alliance rule positively with a whopping 69% voting for the party.
Amongst those who felt that the situation remained the same, over four in ten (43%) supported the Left alliance and three in ten voted for the TIPRA Motha. Amongst those who felt that the condition had deteriorated, close to seven in ten voted for the Left alliance followed by three in ten for TIPRA Motha.
The victory of the ruling BJP-IPFT alliance in the State can be partially attributed to the development that took place in the State in the last five years and partially to a triangular contest resulting in a vote split of those who stated issues other than lack of development as main electoral issues.
(Authors are researchers at Lokniti-CSDS)
