Will the Congress’s failure to strike an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) hurt the grand old party’s prospects in Madhya Pradesh? It’s a question that most political pundits are likely to have in mind.
Going by conventional wisdom, the BSP’s 6.3% vote share and four Assembly seats in the 2013 elections would be expected to translate into a sizeable dip in Dalit votes for the Congress in the Chambal belt and the Satna-Rewa region, where the BSP has had a fair following.
The two regions in the north and north-east of the State yielded two seats each to the Congress in the 2013 election.
With the BSP coming second in 12 of the 230 constituencies in that election, some observers contended that an alliance would have helped consolidate the crucial Dalit vote in these pockets and taken a Congress-led combine past the BJP in quite a few seats.
However, Congress leaders said the BSP’s demand for 50 seats was considered unreasonable with the party seen to be punching far above its weight.
A tour through the State’s Chambal division reveals a complex picture.
In 2013, the BSP won Dimani and Ambah and was runner-up in four seats. Given this pattern, an alliance between the Congress and the BSP ought to have been invincible in these seats.
Not a pan-seat factor
But local Scheduled Caste residents said an alliance may not necessarily have helped across seats.
“The candidate is very important in an election,” said an elderly voter in Purana Joura, who identified himself only as “Jatav”.
“The BSP demanded a share of seats much above its weight. Its powerful candidates apart, the other alliance candidates on BSP ticket would not have been able to hold their ground against the ruling BJP’s candidates.” His logic: a weak BSP candidate on alliance ticket would have most likely seen non-Dalits shift their vote to the BJP.
Political analyst and author Sajjan Kumar, who travelled through the State earlier this year, appeared to affirm the wizened village elder’s reasoning.
“Unlike U.P., Madhya Pradesh has been a bipolar State,” Dr. Kumar said. “A mood for change here does not mean the BSP. It means the Congress.”
Dr. Kumar also cautioned against using past patterns to extrapolate outcomes for the present election.
“Past data do not capture change. In 2013, the Congress was discredited and the BJP was a rising force, also entrenched in M.P. This time, there is rural anti-incumbency, which may mean that more Dalits choose the Congress even in zones where the BSP has been a force,” he said.
Dalit voters in the Chambal region said the vote would be one for change, and the BSP candidate would be preferred only on the basis of winnability. Else, the Scheduled Castes were likely to vote for the Congress to defeat the BJP.
The complaints against the State’s BJP government range from the material to the cultural.
More than farm anger
Besides the general farm anger, there is a very specific Dalit complaint.
“The number of stray cattle has gone up because of Gau Rakshaks ,” said Shripad Jatav of Purana Joura. “They destroy the crops at night. And since we live in a theft-prone area, we don’t know whether to guard our homes or our fields at night.”
Dalits were also unhappy with the police’s treatment of Scheduled Caste youth during the protests against “dilution” of the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act in the wake of the Supreme Court’s order.
For all its exertions, the Centre’s legislative amendment to the Act does not seem to have convinced Dalits of the BJP’s credentials.
