Monday was the last day of campaigning for the Lucknow Lok Sabha constituency, and as the morning progressed, the streets got choked with rival demonstrations of strength on the streets.
If the BJP president Rajnath Singh was hoping not just to ride the Modi wave but to revive the Vajpayee magic that had held this City of Nawabs in thrall by working his way through the Muslim-dominated older part of the city, the Congress's Rita Bahuguna Joshi, daughter of the state's most respected chief minister Hemwati Nandan Bahuguna, was spending the day, wooing women and traders. The Samajwadi Party's young candidate Akhilesh Mishra had the raw power of motorcycle-borne young workers bringing traffic to a halt near the posh shopping district of Hazratganj.
Mr. Singh may have several advantages, including double anti-incumbency against both the Congress-led central and the SP-led state governments, but when The Hindu caught up with him at 10 pm on Sunday night, he looked exhausted. It was clear that he has left no stone unturned, roping in even BJP chief ministers Raman Singh, Shivraj Chauhan and Manohar Parrikar to campaign for him. And the many living rooms at his official residence were bursting not just with party workers but delegations — of doctors and Muslims, to name two. When asked about the BJP's revival in Uttar Pradesh, he said, “Yes, thanks to Modi, the BJP's crisis of credibility is over.”
Prominently displayed at the reception is a picture of the two men in warm embrace, but in Lucknow city, the Modi hoardings all have a benign Mr. Vajpayee peeping over his shoulder. Clearly, it was a case of multiple messages, multiple constituencies.
At Ms. Joshi's residence early on Monday morning, she was sitting on a curved veranda multi-tasking before she sets out for the day: immaculately dressed, she was giving instructions on the telephone, signing forms, accepting the good wishes of friends streaming in, listening to her assistants telling her what gaps are left in the mobilisation… and giving interviews. Ms. Joshi’s pitch was that she will focus on the much needed civic amenities and restoring Lucknow’s cultural heritage.
But simultaneously, conversations at the BJP and Congress offices ponder over where the Brahmin and Muslim votes will go? If the Brahmins here were divided into Kanyakubj, Saryupari and Pahari, the Muslims here were both Sunni and Shia.
The over three lakh Brahmin vote is critical: while the community is tilting this time towards BJP, both the Congress and the SP candidates belong to this community. Ms. Joshi is a Pahari Brahmin and there are 1.5 lakhs of them here, while Mr. Mishra is a Saryupari. Monday morning's papers had photographs of senior Congress leader — and the tallest Pahari Brahmin leader — N.D. Tiwari blessing Ms. Joshi, incidentally a day after Mr. Singh sought his support.
On the other hand, Mr. Mishra’s political rivals point out that the SP candidate who he replaced — Ashok Vajpayee, a respected and senior socialist leader — was a Kanyakubj. Thus, annoyed Kanyakubjs may not vote for Mr. Mishra, was the speculation.
The Muslims, who number 4.5 lakh, too, are in a quandary. While most, barring a small section of the Shias who may vote for the BJP after Mr. Singh visited a prominent Shia cleric, Kalbe Jawaad, will be divided between the Congress, the SP and even the Aam Aadmi Party that has fielded a Muslim, stand-up comedian and Bollywood actor Javed Jafri. He belongs to the numerically small Shia community.
At Akbarigate, a crowded commercial Muslim-dominated locality, welders Wasim and Rahim Mirza, were torn between the notion of voting for a national party that was not the Congress as they held it responsible for high prices. But while they say they feel they should not vote in a regional party such as the SP or BSP, they can't stomach the idea of strengthening Narendra Modi, though they said they like Rajnath Singh.
Wasim said wistfully, “There's so much infighting in the BJP, maybe Rajnath, not Modi will be PM,” and then added, “Some people feel we should try AAP.”
Lucknow is the state capital, and people feel they have a responsibility to vote for a national party in a general election.
So, while most people see Lucknow as a BJP vs. Congress contest, the winner will be the one who has worked through a melange of conflicting issues and the many ramifications of caste.
