With 32 days left for the counting of votes, the rival political camps have started doing poll arithmetic, calculating their winning chances.
Though a little perturbed by the post-election P.C. George-Anto Antony spat over who will win the polls, most leaders in the United Democratic Front (UDF) camp are confident of a smooth sail for Mr. Antony, Congress candidate and the sitting MP. They say that the low voter turnout (66.01 per cent) was not because of any anti-incumbency factor or any voter inertia, but owing to the absence of a large number of voters who are either students studying outside the State or people working abroad.
UDF convener and Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee spokesman Pandalam Sudhakaran is of the view that Mr. Antony would win the polls with a fairly good margin of votes, though it may not be large like in 2009 when he got 1.11 lakh votes majority.
Mr. Sudhakaran substantiates his claim saying that the people in this highly educated Central Travancore belt had taken the polls politically and that too in a wider national perspective.
However, Left Democratic Front (LDF) election managers K.N. Balagopal and P. Prasad are sure of a decisive win for the front’s independent candidate, Peelipose Thomas, former All-India Congress Committee member and two-time District Congress Committee president. The LDF leaders are banking on “the heavy anti-incumbency mood” across the constituency coupled with the Kasturirangan report and the rubber price slump-related crisis in the hilly tracts and the clean political image of Mr. Thomas.
Silent votesNearly 40 per cent of the electorate in the constituency are silent and apolitical who prefer exercising their franchise judiciously on the basis of the merits of the candidates.
It is a fact that the controversial Aranmula airport project and the sitting MP’s strong backing to it had made him unpopular, at least in the project areas that spread across the three villages of Aranmula, Mallappuzhasserry and Kidangannur. Both the LDF and the BJP might have been benefitted with this anti-UDF mood in this otherwise Congress stronghold.
BJP candidate M.T. Ramesh will be a major gainer in this regard, says party State secretary A.G. Unnikrishnan. He says Mr. Ramesh will bag not less than 1.5 lakh votes.
However, LDF leaders say that if any additional votes go for the BJP that would be from Mr. Antony’s kitty. But, the UDF leaders believe that the BJP candidate has eaten into the LDF vote-base formed in the backdrop of the anti-airport movement in and around Aranmula.
Another independent candidate, Peelipose, with his poll symbol ‘camera’ resembling the picture of the ‘autorikshaw’ symbol of the LDF candidate displayed on the screen of the electronic voting machine might have confused some voters.
The UDF claims a massive lead in the Assembly segments of Konni, Aranmula, Kanjirappally, and Thiruvalla, and a marginal majority in Poonjar, Ranni, and Adoor.
The LDF hopes for a thumping majority in Aranmula, Konni, Poonjar, Ranni, and Adoor while a sure majority in Thiruvalla and Kanjirappally.
Analysing the data provided by their polling agents at various booths, the LDF leaders claim a smooth sail for Mr. Thomas by a margin of not less than 20,000 votes. The UDF leaders too claim Mr. Antony’s win by a margin of 30,000 to 50,000 votes over his LDF rival.
