Will Balakot air strikes influence how India votes?

While the BJP may gain in parts of north India, people in the rest of the country seem inclined to vote on the basis of governance

March 16, 2019 08:59 pm | Updated December 04, 2021 10:38 pm IST - New Delhi

Making political capital: BJP workers in Bengaluru celebrate the air strikes.

Making political capital: BJP workers in Bengaluru celebrate the air strikes.

The Opposition parties have charged the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with trying to extract electoral mileage from the Balakot air strikes conducted by the Indian Air Force. While political commentators are divided on whether the nationalistic discourse of “having taught Pakistan a lesson” would influence voting behaviour, The Hindu reached out to a cross-section of voters to gauge the mood.

Most of those contacted were of the view that the post-Pulwama rise in India-Pakistan tensions and the muscular nationalism of cross-border strikes could influence a section of voters in northern India, but are unlikely to matter in the rest of the country. With regard to Kerala, for instance, former Ambassador to the UN T.P. Sreenivasan said the air strikes would not have any electoral impact in the State. “It is not an emotional issue here, unlike in the north where every single family is affected by the Indo-Pak strife. The bitterness against Pakistan which prevails in the north is not felt in Kerala,” he said.

Anthony Kurishinka, a fisherman from Alappuzha, said, “These incidents are not going to give any political party any advantage. People are well-educated. They won’t make mistakes like before or get carried away by emotions.”

 

Similar sentiments were voiced by voters in Punjab and Haryana. Rakesh Bains, a potato farmer at Rawa village in Haryana, said, “In the past four years, I mostly got poor returns for my crops. Price volatility and market fluctuations left me with losses. I’ll vote for whichever party assures me better returns. The air strike seems like an attempt to divert attention.”

Performance matters

Sukhchain Sinh Khaira, who works with the Punjab government, said, “My vote will be based on the government’s performance on the development front. Fanning sentiments of nationalism against the backdrop of air strikes is not going to work with me. I am a patriot, but before casting my vote, I’ll assess the government’s work.”

Mixed views came from Uttar Pradesh, the State with the largest share of Lok Sabha seats. R.B. Rawat, a Dalit scholar from Lucknow, said the air strikes reflected the BJP government’s attempts to “conceal its failures”. “Even in the age of social media, when nothing is hidden, the government is mocking Indians and the country, and through its jumlas is weakening the morale of the jawans of the Army,” Mr. Rawat said.

Praveen Kumar, a Jat teacher in Muzaffarnagar, said the air strikes would boost Mr. Modi’s image. “It has surely increased his vote bank,” said Mr. Kumar, counting himself among the Modi supporters. “When the king [PM] is himself patriotic, people will also be,” said Mr. Kumar.

Not many seemed to be talking about the air strikes in Andhra Pradesh. “It’s not an electoral issue in Andhra,” said J.C. Pavan Reddy, the Telugu Desam Party’s candidate for the Anantapur Lok Sabha seat. But D. Venkateswara Reddy, BJP general secretary for Anantapur, said the Centre deserved credit for the air strikes and they would take this achievement to the people. The move may, however, not work with the likes of C. Aruna, a housewife and member of a self-help group in Chittoor.

“When the nation is well-protected from its enemies, the credit goes to the Army. Though the party in power may claim credit for the Balakot air strikes, the victory belongs to the nation, the Air Force and the people. It won’t benefit the BJP in Andhra Pradesh, a State where it has no roots,” she said.

In Tamil Nadu, the air strikes are yet to become a part of the electoral discourse. The only political development of note is Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami writing to Prime Minister Narendra Modi asking for the Param Vir Chakra to be conferred on Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman.

As for the eight States in the north-eastern region, opinion seems to be divided. “I strongly feel that the Pulwama attack and the subsequent Balakot strikes are going to have a big impact on the elections. It just might help the BJP-led government to come back to power,” said Dominic Tok, a voter in Itanagar. But Tapi Mali, an Itanagar-based government employee, said it would have no impact. “There are issues bigger than patriotism. Voters are unhappy with the corruption and unemployment,” he said.

Paudi Renta, a professional based in Dimapur of Nagaland, said, “Voters here are a bit detached from what happens elsewhere. Their focus is more on the settlement of the Naga peace process, and the roads, which are in pathetic shape.”

In Aizawl, Lalrinchhana Tochhawng, a businessman, felt that local issues were more important than the “too far away” Balakot strikes

On the other hand, Guwahati-based doctor Krishanu Krori believed that Balakot would influence urban voters to some extent, as they might view Mr. Modi “as a strong PM”.

(With inputs from bureaus)

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