The stage is set for anxiously awaited counting of votes on Thursday, and the question being asked is not just who will hold the reins of power at the Centre but also in Karnataka. For, the longevity of the governing coalition is speculated to depend on the Lok Sabha election results and several exit polls have predicted a poor show by the Congress–Janata Dal (Secular) combine in Karnataka.
The results of all the 28 Lok Sabha constituencies are being seen as a “referendum” on the performance of the H.D. Kumaraswamy government, which is going to complete one year on Thursday.
The Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), which entered into an alliance after the 2018 Assembly elections threw up a fractured mandate, forged a pact for the general elections for the first time. The Congress contested in 21 constituencies and the JD(S) in seven, making it a straight fight between the coalition partners and the BJP in all the constituencies except Mandya.
Several troubles
The government has weathered several troubles, with many Congress legislators picking issues with the Kumaraswamy administration every now and then, some more belligerently than the others. There was a clamour to see Congress Legislature Party leader Siddaramaiah in the Chief Minister’s post as well. Many within the two parties believe that the Lok Sabha election results might well be the final deciding factor on the survival of the coalition government.
The results of the byelections to the Assembly from Kundagol and Chincholi constituencies are also crucial for ensuring stability of the coalition government.
While Mr. Kumaraswamy and Congress leaders dismissed the outcome of exit polls as not “exact” poll results, the Opposition BJP is hopeful of winning over 20 seats and is expected to make every attempt to dislodge the coalition arrangement through its “operation lotus” strategy, which in adopted in 2008–09.
The focus of this elections has been on Tumakuru, Mandya, and Hassan from where JD(S) “family” — the former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda and his grandsons K. Nikhil and Prajwal Revanna, respectively, — are contesting.
BJP-backed Independent and actor Sumalatha has posed a serious challenge to Mr. Nikhil, also an actor and son of the Chief Minister, in the Vokkaliga heartland of Mandya, which hogged all the limelight through the campaign.
The results would decide the fate of Congress veterans such as M. Mallikarjun Kharge, K.H. Muniyappa, M. Veerappa Moily and BJP Ministers Anantkumar Hegde, D.V. Sadananda Gowda, and Ramesh Jigaginagi.
Both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Congress president Rahul Gandhi campaigned in the State. The two-phase election campaign witnessed two strands of narratives, with ‘Chowkidar chor hai’ versus ‘Main bhi chowkidar hoon’ being the dominant one. While the Congress attacked the Union government for demonetisation, GST, Rafale deal, anti-farmer policies, and unemployment, the BJP hit out at the Kumaraswamay government, calling it a “20% commission government” and harped on issues of “nationalism”.