On paper, the math behind alliance vote shares overwhelming favours former chief minister and Union Minister M. Veerappa Moily, who is contesting for the third time from Chikkaballapur. On the ground in the parched constituency, anti-incumbency over delays in Yettinahole river diversion project, discontent among JD(S) workers and caste equations has given BJP hope of getting its first MP from the constituency.
In 2014, BJP’s B.N. Bachegowda lost to Mr. Moily by barely 9,000 votes despite a pro-Modi sentiment. BJP attributes the loss to a split in the Vokkaliga votes between Mr. Gowda and JD(S)’s H.D. Kumaraswamy who polled 3.5 lakh votes. This time around, the direct Congress-BJP fight may hinge entirely on JD(S)’s vote transfer.
In the recent assembly elections, the alliance polled 9.8 lakh (including 4.4 lakh of JD(S)) while BJP got just 3.33 lakh votes primarily from Yelahanka and Hoskote assembly segments. Traditionally, a significant chunk of JD(S)’s votes have shifted to BJP in parliamentary polls.
This time around, Congress leaders fear that a majority of the estimated 5 lakh Vokkaliga votes will shift to the BJP. “We are trying to convince JD(S) leaders to whole-heartedly campaign for us. If this is done, we expect 70% of their votes for us,” says a Congress leader part of Mr. Moily’s re-election campaign.
Discontent
But this is easier said than done. JD(S) hasn’t yet joined the campaign in large parts of the constituency. At Lalagondanahalli near Devanahalli, local JD(S) worker Chowdapara Ramanna, doesn’t seem sure he can convince the 1,500 voters that he is responsble for. “Through so many elections, we have campaigned against Congress who are our big rivals. Now, with what credibility do we tell our voters to vote for them?” he asks.
The discontent is primarily in five assembly segments of the constituency where JD(S) and Congress are primary rivals. At Chikkaballapur town, meetings of JD(S) leaders has seen discontent, with workers even saying they would vote for the BJP if they are “forced” to campaign for Congress.
However, K.B. Muniraju, the party’s Chikkaballapur taluk President, is optimistic the discontent will simmer closer to the polling date. “There were meetings on April 14, where party workers were warned by the JD(S) high command. The vote has to go to Congress and our loyal, cadre-like workers have already gone to gram panchayat level to canvass for the Congress,” he said. One senior leader expected just around 60% of JD(S) votes to go to Congress even with the “warnings”.
Modi and anti-incumbency
Congress is beset with two other problems here: a continued fascination for Prime Minister Narendra Modi among young and urban voters, and anti-incumbency over Yettinahole project (where 7TMC of water is promised to Chikkaballapur and neighbouring Kolar).
At Adhegarahalli near Gauribidanur, and Sitarama Reddy, a shop keeper who voted for Congress last year, is attempting to convince those huddled in his shop to “vote for Modi”. He is met with a barrage of questions about Modi’s performance, but he remains firm. “Development will trickle down to our village eventually,” he says. BJP believes this “confidence” in the PM has only grown among the voters here.
While the gathered are not convinced, 75-year-old marginal farmer Muniyappa, a traditional Congress voter says: “I don’t care much for Modi, but I’m not sure I want to vote for Moily. We voted for him in 2014 because he said he’ll bring us water from Yettinahole soon. Not one drop has come and now he says it’ll come in three years,” he said.
The BJP hopes to cash in on this discontent through their grand counter-narrative of river inter-linking promise to provide water to Chikkaballapur from River Krishna.
