A deceptive calm pervades Solapur city. With an administrative prohibition on hoardings and electioneering posters coupled with the merciless heat, the city seems devoid of any intimation of the general elections.
Yet, at veteran Congressman Sushilkumar Shinde’s bungalow, the sense that the Solapur seat is a high-stakes battle is palpable from the endless meetings with his party workers and constituents.
In a major upset, Mr. Shinde, despite being elected a number of times as a Member of the Legislative Assembly in the 1970s and twice as a Member of Parliament from the Solapur seat, was defeated by the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) Sharad Bansode by nearly 1.5 lakh votes in 2014.
“It was a big psychological blow to Mr. Shinde as Mr. Bansode was a nonentity when compared to him. So this time, Mr. Shinde is determined to recoup his losses with his frenetic campaigning,” said a local Congress leader.
As Solapur goes to the polls on April 18, Mr. Shinde is up against two rather formidable candidates: Dr. Jai Siddheshwar Shivacharya Swami, the Lingayat seer cannily propped up by the BJP, and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) leader Prakash Ambedkar, whose entry into the fray is considered to be a major spoiler for Mr. Shinde.
The BJP is counting on the spiritual leader to carry the critical Lingayat community with him, which constitutes nearly three lakh votes with a strong presence in Akkalkot, Mangalwedha, and the southern parts of Solapur district. The Telugu-speaking Padmashali caste is yet another section whose votes the BJP is banking upon.
However, local analysts point out that it is not certain that the Lingayat community would vote en bloc for Jai Siddheshwar Shivacharya.
“Solapur is a district of maths and religious institutions. In Akkalkot alone, there are 110 maths . But today, this floating vote [Lingayat community] does not wholly belong to the BJP as a section is upset at the seer for devaluing his moral authority by plunging into the petty realm of politics,” a senior journalist from Solapur said.
Furthermore, Mr. Shinde has managed to secure the support of the influential Hotgi Math, thus splitting the Lingayat vote.
Dr. Mallikarjun Shivacharya Swami, the high priest of Hotgi Math, openly announced its support to Mr. Shinde at a programme where the two leaders shared the dais.
While the stalwart Congressman has the support of a substantial section of the Dhangar and the Maratha communities, he faces a serious challenge from Mr. Ambedkar in winning over the Dalit and Muslim voters. “Mr. Shinde was ahead in this race till Mr. Ambedkar announced his entry. Mr. Ambedkar is certain to secure a large number of Other Backward Class votes, cannibalising the Congress’ traditional vote bank,” a local election watcher said.
Yet, while the VBA leader, who has allied himself with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), has rapidly acquired a reputation of a vote-splitter, it remains to be seen just how many backward community and minority votes he can secure.
According to some observers, the Muslim sections are not too disposed towards the VBA and Mr. Ambedkar as the community has no leader of their own this time.
Sections of the minority community enthusiastically embraced the AIMIM in the 2017 Solapur civic body polls, which saw the party winning nine seats in the Solapur Municipal Corporation.
“Solapur has had a history of communal tensions and its minority community has traditionally supported the Congress. While the community might have wholeheartedly backed a Muslim candidate contesting on an AIMIM ticket, they are more likely to remain with the Congress [Mr. Shinde] as Mr. Ambedkar’s VBA has not put up a minority community candidate,” another analyst said. Still, Mr. Owaisi’s rally in Solapur city may have helped galvanise the community into wholeheartedly supporting Mr. Ambedkar.
Of the 10 lakh-odd constituents, the district has a large number of Telugu and Kannada-speaking voters, who reportedly exceed its Marathi-speaking constituents.
“The Congress roped in actors Chiranjeevi and Vijayashanti to campaign for Mr. Shinde with an eye on Telugu and Kannada voters. We are leaving no stone unturned to reclaim Solapur,” a party activist said. In the event of a neck-to-neck contest, analysts opine Mr. Shinde might just derive some crucial emotional mileage from the fact that this is the stalwart Congressman’s final election.
