While both Maval and Shirur Lok Sabha constituencies recorded a near-identical voter turnout (around 59.5%) in the recently concluded fourth phase of the general elections, some of the Assembly segments in these two constituencies witnessed unusually high turnouts. As both the Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)-Congress candidates confidently anticipate victories in these crucial seats in Pune district, the question is which side will benefit from the increased voter turnout.
The prestige of the Pawar clan is at stake in Maval where the NCP–Congress candidate Parth Pawar — Sharad Pawar’s grand nephew and Ajit Pawar’s son — is pitted against sitting Sena MP Shrirang Barne.
After more than a decade of one-sided contests, the Shirur LS seat is expected to witness an equally fierce fight where the NCP’s Dr. Amol Kolhe — a popular television actor believed to be handpicked by Mr. Pawar — takes on three-time sitting Sena MP, Shivajirao Adhalrao Patil.
In contrast to an abysmal voting percentage in Pune (49.84%), Election Commission (EC) data shows voters exercised their franchise more enthusiastically in Maval and Shirur as both constituencies recorded voter turnouts of 59.49% and 59.46% respectively.
A pattern discernible in both these constituencies was that rural Assembly segments witnessed robust turnouts in comparison with the more populous urban segments.
Of the six Assembly segments that constitute the Maval LS seat, Karjat registered the highest turnout with 67.76%, followed by Uran, which saw a turnout of 67.21%.
The NCP is hoping for a lead in Karjat, Uran and parts of the Maval segments where its ally, the Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) has a solid base. Mr. Pawar’s party also has its sole MLA in the Maval LS seat in Karjat in the form of veteran NCP leader Suresh Lad.
However, in spite of healthy turnouts, these two segments have the lowest number of voters. The real battle for Maval is concentrated in the densely populated urban pockets of Panvel and the Pimpri-Chinchwad township, where the ruling BJP has the edge on account of its supremacy in the civic bodies of both townships.
However, despite Panvel and Chinchwad having more than five lakh voters each, the two Assembly segments registered middling turnouts of 55.33% and 56.29% respectively. Even then, the Sena-BJP combine are confident that increased voters (as opposed to the last general elections) in these three urban segments will help Mr. Barne coast to victory.
BJP general secretary Sarang Kamtekar claimed that Mr. Barne would secure four lakh votes in these three segments alone, where roughly six lakh voters have exercised their franchise.
“While the NCP may lead in Karjat and Uran, the BJP-Sena alliance has an edge in Panvel and Pimpri-Chinchwad as our party is in power in both the civic bodies in these two townships,” Mr. Kamtekar said.
“There has always been an attraction towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the urban parts of Maval, namely in the Panvel, Chinchwad and Pimpri Assembly segments. The increased number of voters in these two segments has increased Mr. Barne’s — and the Sena-BJP’s — hopes of a win,” political analyst Rajendra Pandharpure said.
In Shirur, the rural Ambegaon segment, where Mr. Patil has a home, recorded a turnout of more than 70%, prompting the sitting Sena MP to quip that it [high voter turnout] proved that the people were fed up with the NCP and wanted the Modi government back in power.
Despite Mr. Patil’s bluster, Dr. Kolhe has given him a run for his money by exerting influence on rural voters, especially the youthful segments.
At the same time, Dr. Kolhe has managed to strike a chord in the urban areas by projecting his image as a professionally qualified doctor dedicated to the uplift of society.
“Shirur is likely to be a breakneck contest which could go either way. While Mr. Patil has managed to overcome the Sena’s fractious relations with the BJP by shrewdly projecting Mr. Modi’s re-election as the rationale for his getting re-elected, Dr. Kolhe has won hearts with his popular appeal,” Mr. Pandharpure said.
