Raised to the power of three in Kerala

A three-way divide, with the BJP pushing hard to be the third prong; and three issues of development, corruption and welfare.

April 15, 2016 05:24 am | Updated September 08, 2016 11:24 pm IST - THIRUVANANTHAPURAM

Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy.

Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy.

Going by popular perception, it is a three-way divide that Kerala’s poll scene presents, the ruling United Democratic Front (UDF) and Opposition Left Democratic Front (LDF) fighting it out in all 140 seats and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) trying its best to force its way into the Assembly. Thus, unlike in the past, the State elections this time is as much about the UDF or the LDF emerging victorious or getting trounced as about the success or failure of the BJP’s bid to win at least a seat in the only southern State where it has not been able to do so in a Lok Sabha or Assembly election.

The two alliances had fought one of the closest elections in 2011, the UDF gaining a wafer-thin majority (72-68). It did win all the by-elections held subsequently and more or less hold its ground in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but it suffered severe setbacks in the recently held local government elections, with almost 65 per cent of the local government institutions going to the LDF.

The CPI(M) and its allies see the Assembly elections as another opportunity to triumph over the Congress and the UDF, keeping public attention focussed on the several corruption charges against key members of the Oommen Chandy Cabinet, even the Chief Minister himself. But the Congress and its allies are hopeful of disrupting the State’s history of alternating governments by stressing the government’s track record in development and care of the needy. Thus, these elections are also about three major issues: development, corruption and social security.

After the Karunakaran government of the early 1990s, no government in Kerala has faced the kind of corruption charges that the Oommen Chandy government has. From the bar-bribery case to the solar scam, the government has been faced with a barrage of allegations touching upon the personal, political and administrative sides of governance. The Opposition’s promise is to provide a government that is clean and responsive. The question then is whether Mr. Chandy and his government would survive an Opposition onslaught built on corruption as a key campaign plank. It might, but only if it is able to push the development argument convincingly enough and reap political dividends from the massive social outreach that Mr. Chandy himself and his government had attempted over the past five years.

Taint of corruption The debate between the two sides over these issues, with the BJP playing the third prong, had begun long before the elections were announced. The bribery row had taken the sheen off the UDF government’s decision to clamp down on sale and consumption of hard liquor. While in Tamil Nadu, the promise of a ban on liquor sale is one of the hottest political topics, the State which took the first major step in recent times to curb liquor consumption appears to be fighting shy of discussing the issue. Mr. Chandy does not want to discuss it because that would be akin to stirring the hornets’ nest. The CPI(M) and the LDF does not want to discuss it because their stand on the issue is still very fluid.

The Assembly poll campaign was just picking up in Kerala when tragedy struck at the Puttingal Devi Temple at Paravur in Kollam on Sunday, shocking the conscience of the people across the country. Now that the State has recovered from the tragedy, party leaders have hit the campaign trail once again, though not with the gusto that one expects.

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