Constituting nearly 13% of Karnataka’s 5.27 crore electorate, Muslims are a significant voting bloc in over 30 urban constituencies. Informal estimates by political parties indicate that they could change the fortunes of candidates in about 70 constituencies, where the community accounts for at least 20% of the electorate.
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This time around, in the context of unprecedented “oppression” by the ruling dispensation, the question is whether the Muslim community will vote for a single party or will instead get splintered between “secular” parties, giving an advantage for the BJP. Community leaders say that it is difficult to prevent splitting of votes between the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular), though minorities are wary of the latter for having been “opportunistic” in the past. The recent overtures of the JD(S) to the Muslim community — including the appointment of a Muslim as its State unit president — are not a factor to be brushed aside, they say.
No champion for Muslims
To counter anti-incumbency, the ruling BJP is leaving no stone unturned. The government increased reservation for the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities in a bid to consolidate non-Muslim votes. They did this by scrapping the 4% sub-reservation for Muslims within the quota for Other Backward Classes (OBC) list, a move that is now being challenged in the Supreme Court.
Several hot-button issues, including the ban on wearing hijabs in classrooms, have left the Muslim community in Karnataka frustrated. Community leaders say that the political scenario is very confusing. “Although the approach is to counter communal forces, there is no common strategy in place as yet,” said one of them, who did not wish to be named. Despite several issues that have hit the community directly, no party has come out openly in support of Muslims in a consistent manner, though individual leaders have done so periodically. This is mainly because the parties do not want to be branded as “pro-minority” and “anti-Hindu.”
Fear factor
Former IAS official Mohammed Sanaulla says that this time around, there is a strong “fear factor” within the Muslim community over the way they are being treated in the current political environment. “This could influence their voting. While the hijab issue has affected a small percentage of the community, what is very disturbing is the scrapping of reservation for the community, which is illogical. Besides, the cut in funds for the Karnataka Minority Development Corporation (KMDC) has hit Muslim students hard. So, the natural choice will be the party that promises to restore these,” he says.
But it is difficult to say if a single secular party will get an absolute majority, he says. Candidates from parties such as the Social Democratic Party of India (SDPI) and the All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) may also end up splitting the Muslim votebank in some constituencies.
‘Creating controversies’
The Karnataka Muslim Muttahida Mahaz (KMMM), an umbrella organisation of 28 non-political Muslim organisations in the State, alleges that efforts were made to subtly divert Muslim voters from major issues such as unemployment, corruption, price rise, or poor infrastructure, which are common across the State, by creating controversies regarding hijabs or the azan, the Muslim call to prayer.
In the current scenario, it is important that all voters, not just Muslims, should choose wisely and select good governance, says KMMM convenor Masood Abdul Khader. “While our advice to people is to come out and vote, we are also guiding them to choose a secular candidate,” he says.
Mohamed Atherulla Shariff, a member of the Advisory Council of the Jamat-e-Islami Hind in Karnataka, warns that the larger secular parties cannot take the Muslim vote bank for granted. “No party has supported the community on the issues of hijab, azan and reservation to the extent that was expected. Overall, Congress is not likely to be the only choice. Depending on the winnability factor, JD(S) is also likely to be a choice in some constituencies. And, wherever secular party candidates have totally failed, candidates from smaller parties are also likely to be the choice,” he says.
Freedom or livelihood
The current situation is very peculiar as far as Muslims are concerned, says Syed Tanveer Ahmed, director of the Holistic Education Board, a community trust that handholds minority educational institutions. “Although they have many political, social and economical issues, Muslims are more bothered about safety, security and freedom to practice their own religion. The hijab issue has created some kind of fear primarily among the middle and lower middle class and this is directly proportional to education,” he says.
However, the poor and downtrodden classes among Muslims are not bothered about these things, he says. “They are more worried about price rise, unemployment and issues affecting their livelihood. And it is this section of society that is vulnerable to inducements and incitement,” he argues.
