An uphill task is ahead for the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam in winning the Thattanchavady bypoll as it is a stronghold of the principal Opposition party, the All India N.R. Congress. The constituency goes to the polls along with Lok Sabha elections on April 18.
But the Dravidian party, which is contesting in alliance with the Congress, the Communist Party of India, the Communist Party of India (Marxist), and the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi has entered the bypoll fray with much more confidence compared to the 2016 elections after it roped in the CPI, the runner-up in the last elections.
The DMK has fielded K. Venketesan, a businessman, against AINRC’s P. Nedounzejiane, who is the nephew of party founder N. Rangasamy.
The Thattanchavady byelection came about after the conviction by a CBI special court of MLA Ashok Anand in a disproportionate assets case.
Mr. Anand had won the seat defeating CPI’s K. Sethu alias Sethuselvam of the Communist Party of India (CPI) by a margin of 7,458 votes.
The Congress had given the seat to its alliance partner, the DMK, in the 2016 Assembly elections. The party candidate, Kaliaperumal, had lost his deposit by securing 1,467 votes.
The constituency has 29,757 voters, including 15,697 women, 14,057 men and 3 others. In the Union Territory with a low voter base, the electoral outcome was often more related to the personal rapport of the candidate with electors, though all major political parties have their committed voter base.
More loyal to candidate
As is evident from the results of Thattanchavady Assembly elections, the voters had exercised their preference for a particular candidate than the party that they contested.
Congress leader V. Pethaperumal had once held sway over the constituency winning five elections, starting 1974, as candidate of the Indian National Congress (Old), the Janata Party and the Janata Dal. He was credited with initiating development works in a systemic manner in the constituency.
He had lost to his one-time associate N. Rangasamy in the 1991 Assembly polls. Mr. Rangasamy continued to represent the constituency till the 2006 Assembly before switching over to Kadirgamam following delimitation.
Mr. Anand came into the fray in 2011 elections as a candidate of Mr. Rangasamy’s then fledgling All India N.R. Congress. He defeated N. Arjunan, an Independent, by a margin of 4,096 votes.
By fielding a low-profile candidate for the bypoll, the AINRC is banking on Mr. Ranagasamy’s electoral connect with the voters to retain the seat. It will be a testing time for the former Chief Minister to see whether his popularity was intact in the constituency.
“It is still our bastion. The constituency was well nurtured by Mr. Rangasamy. The party candidate will increase its winning margin because of displeasure of voters against the Congress government,” Balan, key strategist and second-in command of AINRC, told The Hindu.
Banking on popularity
Dismissing the electoral threat because of the coming together of the DMK and the CPI in bypoll, he said: “Popularity of our leader is enough to counter vote share calculations.”
Former Minister and DMK leader in-charge for the constituency S.P. Sivakumar said blamed the 2016 rout on a weak campaign and poor selection of candidate. This time the picture was different as the party had put all its resource in the constituency, he said.
“The DMK had ruled the U.T. in the past. We have taken the bypoll very seriously. We wanted to regain our past glory. If our opponent is banking on the popularity of Mr. Rangasamy, the results will prove him wrong,” he said.
The voters of the constituency were well educated to understand that they were pushed to the bypoll due to conviction of their representative in a corruption case, he said.
CPI leader Salim said the party had shed its initial inhibitions in campaigning after it was denied the ticket by the Congress. The party’s strong cadre base had been activated to ensure the victory of the DMK candidate. “Its a fight between secular and communal forces,” he added.
The voters are generally happy with infrastructure and other development works. Lack of jobs and maintenance for roads in certain stretches are an irritant among voters.
For the Congress, the bypoll was crucial as it could help improve the government’s stability by improving upon its razor-thin majority in the House. In the 33-member House (30 elected and three nominated), the Congress has 15 seats, the AINRC 7, the AIADMK 4, three nominated BJP members, , the DMK 2, the CPI(M) and a lone Independent MLA.
The coming together of the AINRC, the AIADMK and the BJP has narrowed the gap between the ruling and Opposition formations.
