The week in 5 charts | Karnataka elections, Toshakhana corruption case, Tamil Nadu cabinet reshuffle and more

Here are five charts that will help you understand some of the key stories from this week

May 14, 2023 02:52 pm | Updated 06:37 pm IST

(1) Karnataka elections

The Congress saw a resounding victory in Karnataka’s Assembly elections, winning 135 seats out of 224. The BJP, which won 104 seats in 2018, bagged 66 this year. The JDS’s performance was the worst in over two decades and the AAP received fewer votes than the NOTA category.

For the Congress and the opposition, the results were a morale boost for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. For the BJP, they were a setback. Now, the party controls no Southern State. The BJP’s attempts to change its image of a Hindi belt party were foiled by the Congress through an intensely local campaign with strong overtones of regionalism versus Delhi. The recent Amul versus Nandini milk cooperative controversy did not help the saffron party either. In fact, the top five milk-producing districts favoured the Congress.

With the Telengana Assembly elections coming up later this year, Karnataka’s loss hurts the BJP even more.

Also read | Analysis: With the defeat, BJP back to square one in south India

Connected to this lack of touch with the cultural realities of Karnataka is the rural-urban divide that ate into the BJP’s votes. The party has had more success in urban belts than rural areas.

Also read | Data | It’s a strong rural victory for the Congress in Karnataka

Tackling the Southern states would push the BJP into making a tough choice between the party using Modi’s charisma or giving space to regional leadership. A strong regional leadership might threaten the party. What is clear lesson now is that the BJP should consider the particularities of a place than offering a national magic potion.

(2) Islamabad HC grants two-week bail to Imran Khan

A special bench of the Islamabad High Court (IHC) on May 12 granted bail to former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan for two weeks in a corruption case.

Also Read | Descent into chaos: on the state of Pakistan’s politics

Mr. Khan, 70, was arrested from the premises of the IHC on Tuesday in the Al-Qadir Trust case. His arrest by paramilitary Rangers sparked widespread protests across Pakistan, prompting the deployment of the Army here as well as in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces.

The protestors pelted stones, broke barricades and set highway interchanges on fire.

They even burnt down Radio Pakistan’s main building in Peshawar - But what was really unprecedented, was the protestors reaching army buildings- first burning down the Corp Commanders residence in Lahore, and also breaching the first gate of the General Head Quarters of the Pakistani Army

In police crackdowns about 2,600 of Khan’s supporters have been arrested, including key former ministers and about 11 people have been killed

The IHC upheld his arrest but a three-member Supreme Court bench on Thursday declared his detention “illegal” and ordered his immediate release. The apex court directed police to keep him in the Supreme Court’s protection and produce him before the high court at 11 a.m.

Also Read | Worldview with Suhasini Haidar | Imran Khan saga | How will Pakistan’s political chaos impact the region?

This crisis is unfolding at a time when Pakistan is undergoing one of its worst economic crises. Its foreign reserves are depleting, inflation hit a record 35% in April, the highest in South Asia, and the Pakistani rupee keeps falling. The country has also witnessed a rise in terror attacks by the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which has been emboldened by the Taliban’s return to power in neighbouring Afghanistan.

(3) SC ruling on Sena vs. Sena

The Supreme Court, in a unanimous judgment, effectively opened the doors for disqualification proceedings against Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde for defection from the Shiv Sena party, and held that the then-Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari “erred” in calling for a trust vote which triggered the fall of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government in mid-2022.

However, the court also said that Governor Koshyari was right in inviting Mr. Shinde to form the new government as Mr. Thackeray had resigned before the floor test. This means that the Shinde government will continue in power for now.

Also Read | Morality and majority: on the Supreme Court verdict on the political imbroglio in Maharashtra

Besides cautioning Governors against treating internal problems of a ruling party as a possible loss of majority, the Court has also clarified that whips and leaders of the party in the House ought to be appointed by the political party, and not the legislature party. This has a bearing on whose whip is binding on legislators in the event of a party splitting into two factions.

The Court also said it “cannot ordinarily adjudicate petitions for disqualification under the 10th Schedule. There are no extraordinary circumstances in the instant case that warrant the exercise of jurisdiction by this Court to adjudicate disqualification petitions. The Speaker must decide disqualification petitions within a reasonable period.”

On May 11, based on the five petitions and arguments made by both parties, the Court gave its ruling on questions of law that arose in this case in a 141-page judgment.

Also Read | Explained | What is the SC ruling on Sena vs. Sena?

Eknath Shinde termed the Supreme Court’s verdict a “slap” on those who called his government “illicit”, while Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray sought the resignation of Mr. Shinde and his deputy Devendra Fadnavis on “moral grounds”.

(4) Tamil Nadu cabinet reshuffle

On Thursday, Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister M.K. Stalin reshuffled the Cabinet for the third time since his term started in May 2021.

The first reshuffle was in March 30 last year when R.S. Rajakannappan’s position as Minister of Transportation was changed to Minister of Backward Classes Welfare. The swap happened after a block development officer complained in a viral video that the minister had chided him using his caste’s name.

The second reshuffle was in December last year. The Chief Minister’s son Udhayanidhi Stalin was inducted in the Cabinet as the Minister for Youth Welfare and Sports Development. Besides his induction, portfolios were changed for 10 ministers.

The third reshuffle this week saw the key portfolio change of Palanivel Thiaga Rajan, the former Finance Minister. Mr. Rajan took over the portfolio of Information Technology. In his place, Thangam Thennarasu took over the Finance and Human Resources Management portfolios. S.M. Nasar was removed from the cabinet after complaints about Aavin milk supply being disrupted due to worker-related issues. Added to this is an embarrassing camera grab showing him throwing a clod at a worker for not bringing him a chair.

With the latest reshuffle, the Cabinet retains its maximum strength of 35 Ministers.

(5) Cyclone Mocha

The year’s first cyclone formed as a low pressure area over the southeast of Bay of Bengal on May 9. On Sunday early morning, it is expected to make landfall as an extremely severe cyclonic storm between Cox’s Bazaar in Bangladesh and Myanmar. By early Monday next week, it is predicted to lessen into a severe cyclonic storm within Myanmar.

Cox’s Bazaar is also the place where around a million Rohingya refugees live in camps. When it makes landfall, wind speeds can go up to 160 km per hour (100 miles per hour), gusting to 175 kph (110 mph). Besides Cox’s Bazaar, cyclone Mocha is likely to hit coastal districts including Chattogram, Noakhali and Bhola in Bangladesh on Sunday. Evacuation of nearly 500,000 people in Bangladesh is expected to start Saturday with 576 cyclone shelters ready.

Many parts of the Andaman and Nicobar islands will see strong rains and winds, with many parts of Tripura, Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur and south Assam likely to receive significant rain on Sunday.

Fewer cyclones have formed over the Bay of Bengal, but they have been more intense. The Bay of Bengal’s rising temperature plays a role in this intensification. The speed by which cyclonic intensity increases has also quickened in recent times.

Also read |Climate change is making cyclones more intense on both sides of the Indian coast: study

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