Data | Lowest GDP since 1976 to widening fiscal deficit: Capturing Indian economy in 9 charts

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Saturday, February 1, 2020 presented the budget for the year 2020-21 amid growing concerns about the dismal state of the economy.

Updated - February 02, 2020 08:54 pm IST

Published - February 02, 2020 08:26 pm IST

Stressed: Production in micro enterprises such as this unit located on Sakkimangalam Road at Karuppayurani in Madurai has come down drastically due to the slump in demand for automobiles and economic slowdown. S. James S_James

Stressed: Production in micro enterprises such as this unit located on Sakkimangalam Road at Karuppayurani in Madurai has come down drastically due to the slump in demand for automobiles and economic slowdown. S. James S_James

In nine charts we capture the problems plaguing the economy.

At historic lows

In FY20, the real GDP is expected to grow at 5% (slowest since FY09, the year of the global financial crisis) and the nominal GDP is expected to grow at 7.5% (slowest since FY76). Nominal GDP is a proxy for income growth, especially that of corporates. A slowing nominal GDP will eventually lead to low tax collections.

Real and nominal GDP growth rates

image/svg+xml1970-711974-751978-791982-831986-871990-911994-051998-992002-032006-072010-112014-152018-19Real GDP growth(%, Left axis)Nominal GDP growth(%, Right axis)1050-52520151050At historic lows
 

Widening deficits

The fiscal deficit of ₹8.08 trillion for April-November is nearly 15% more than the projected amount. The deficit has widened due to dwindling tax revenues, following an economic slowdown. The chart compares projected  and actual fiscal deficit between April and November since FY15

State of fiscal deficit

image/svg+xml86420Fiscal deficit projectedApril to Nov. (inRs. trillion)Actual fiscal deficitApril to Nov. (inRs.trillion)April-Nov.2015-16April-Nov.2017-18April-Nov.2016-17April-Nov.2018-19April-Nov.2019-20Widening deficits

Lows across sectors

Gross value added (GVA) across most sectors fell in FY20 compared to FY19, with the manufacturing and construction sectors falling the most. Only the public administration and defence services, mostly fuelled by the government, grew robustly. The table shows the GVA growth.

Sector-wise growth rates

image/svg+xmlYear2015-160.610.113.14.73.610.210.76.12016-176.39.57.9106.17.78.79.22017-1855.15.98.65.67.86.211.92018-192.91.36.978.76.97.48.62019-202.81.525.43.25.96.49.1AGRICULTUREMININGMANUFACTURINGTRADE, HOTELS,TRANSPORTCONSTRUCTIONUTILITIESFINANCIAL &REAL ESTATEPUBLIC ADMIN& DEFENCELows across sectors
 

In search of jobs

The number of people in salaried employment has remained stagnant in the last few years. Growth in employment in this period was seen only in the self-employed category, which  includes gig workers like Ola/Uber cab drivers. The data were sourced from the CMIE database.

State of employment

image/svg+xmlJan. toApr. '16May toApr. '17Jan. toApr. '18Sept. toDec. '19Sept. toDec. '18Sept. toDec. '161109070503010Businessmen & qualifedprofessionals (mn)Self employedentrepreneurs (mn)Salariedemployee (mn)In search of jobs
 

Brakes on

Automobile sales in the country declined year-on-year (YoY) by 23.55% in August 2019, the worst drop since 1997-98. While the decline has been moderate since then, sales continue to suffer. The chart shows the YoY change in sale of passenger vehicles (PV), commercial vehicles and two-wheelers (2W).

State of the auto sector

image/svg+xml40200-20-40Dec. 2018Nov. 2018Oct. 2018Sept. 2018Aug. 2018Jan. 2019Feb. 2019Mar. 2019Apr. 2019May 2019June 2019July 2019Aug. 2019Sept. 2019Oct. 2019Nov. 2019Dec. 2019PV salesCommercialvehicle sales2W salesAll figures in %Brakes on
 

Loan distress

The NPA ratio of all sectors, except agriculture, saw a reduction in 2019 as compared to 2018. NPAs in the agriculture sector saw an increase of 27.5% in this period. Table shows gross NPAs in ₹ crore in 2018 and 2019 and the % change.

Sector-wise NPAs

image/svg+xmlSECTORSGNPA2018GNPA2019% CHANGEIN GNPAsAgriculture75,27495,93827.5%Micro & small enterprises82,09473,381-10.6%Other priority sectors30,14328,016-7.1%Non-priority sector6,57,9645,12,774-22.1%Total NPAs8,45,4757,10,109-16.0%Loan distress
 

Tax reliance

Income Tax has increased substantially as a component of Gross Tax Revenues (GTR) over the last two decades. Corporate tax as a share of GTR grew till 2009-10 but fell thereafter,  while the share of indirect tax, which was falling till 2009-10, increased thereafter. Graph traces tax share since FY96.

Share of income tax in total taxes

image/svg+xml25201510580604020Tax relianceCorporate tax(Left axis)Income Tax(Right axis)Indirect tax(Left axis)FY96FY98FY00FY02FY04FY06FY08FY10FY12FY14FY16FY18FY20All figures are a % of GTRSource: Central Board of Direct Taxation

Income levels up for tax filers

The gross total income of individuals who filed income tax returns has gone up in the last five years. For instance, 24.7% of taxpayers were earning below ₹2 lakh in 2013-14, while only 7.1% did so in 2018-19. Similarly, the share of income tax payers who earned between ₹4 lakh and ₹10 lakh saw a significant jump. However, it is important to note that only around 7.4% adults in India pay income tax.

Income tax levels

image/svg+xmlTAX BRACKETSAY 2014AY 20190 to 2 lakh24.7%7.1%2 to 4 lakh44.4%41.8%4 to 10 lakh24.9%41.1%10 to 50 lakh5.7%9.5%>50 lakh0.4%0.6%Source: Central Board of Direct TaxationIncome levels up for tax filers

Bear run

The Sensex fell 2.43% at the end of the day after the budget presentation by the Finance Minister. This is the worst such fall since 2009 (when the Sensex fell nearly 6% points). Stocks in the realty sector fell the most (-8%). Stocks in the IT sector registered a 1.4% increase over the day.

Market ups and downs

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