India has now overtaken China as the world’s most populous country. This demographic shift is being felt across the nation, especially in the ever-growing size of electorates in States. Haryana, though, is an anomaly.
While the electorate is growing in most States, the growth rate in Haryana has notably decelerated during the last few years. Between 2009 and 2014, the electorate in Haryana grew by nearly 20%, but between 2014 and 2019, it dropped sharply to 11%. Between 2019 and 2024, the size of the electorate of Haryana increased by 9.7%. In essence, the growth of Haryana’s electorate decelerated by around 10% in the last 15 years. This trend is surprising and puzzling.
Urban versus rural Haryana
What makes this decline even more curious is that the fall is sharper in urban areas as compared to rural areas. Between the 2009 and 2014 Assembly elections, Haryana’s urban electorate grew by an impressive 27%. However, a decade later, from 2019 to 2024, the growth rate of the electorate plummeted to just 11.6%, marking a dramatic 15-point drop. In comparison, rural Haryana fared better, with a smaller decline of about 8 points. Typically, we expect urban areas, driven by migration and economic opportunities, to lead electorate growth, but in Haryana, the opposite seems to be happening (Table 1).
However, the larger story lies in how this uneven electoral growth has played out in elections, particularly in the hands of political parties. An analysis of the 2014 and 2019 Assembly elections reveals a clear picture. As electoral growth increased across various Assembly constituencies, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s performance improved, while its opponents struggled.
Table 1 shows the growth of the Haryana electorate across various elections.
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The table shows the increase in the size of the electorate between 2009 and 2014, between 2014 and 2019, and between 2019 and 2024.
Growth and BJP’s success
The data from the 2014 Assembly elections show a strong correlation between high electorate growth and the electoral success of the BJP. In 27 Assembly constituencies with up to 15% growth, the BJP won 10 seats with a vote share of 27.33%. As the growth rate of the electorate increased, the BJP’s performance improved. In the 34 seats that saw 16%-20% growth, the party won 19 seats and its vote share rose to 32.66%. In the 29 seats with more than 20% growth, the BJP won 18 seats and secured 39.17% of the vote share.
On the other hand, the vote shares of the Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) declined in areas where the electorate grew. In constituencies where the size of the electorate grew up to 15%, the INLD’s vote share was 26.5%, nearly rivalling the BJP’s, but the Congress lagged behind with a vote share of 22.5%. As the growth of the electorate increased to the 16%-20% range, the vote shares of both the Congress and the INLD dropped. In areas where the electorate grew by more than 20% growth, the vote share of both parties fell sharply by almost 5 points. This means that the BJP gained in areas which have recorded a high growth rate of the electorate (Table 2).
Table 2 shows the voting choices of a growing electorate in the 2014 Assembly elections.
The table shows the number of seats across various percentages of the rate of growth of the electorate and the voter turnout in those seats. It also shows the number of seats won by select parties in 2014 and the vote share secured by them in those seats.
Similar story with a twist
By the 2019 Assembly elections, a similar pattern emerged but with some perceptible differences. In 27 seats that saw up to a 9% growth rate of the electorate, the BJP won 8 seats and secured a vote share of 33.9%, compared to the Congress’s 27.4% and the Jananayak Janata Party’s (JJP) 23.8%. In 37 seats with a growth rate of 9%-12% of the electorate, the BJP’s vote share increased to 35.9% and the party secured 18 seats. In contrast, the Congress’s vote share remained static, and the JJP’s support collapsed: it won just two seats and its vote share halved to 12%.
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In the 26 Assembly seats with over 12% growth, the BJP’s dominance continued, with its vote share jumping to 40.9%, while the JJP’s share shrank by 3 more points. Interestingly, the Congress received steady support across all growth constituencies, but once again, the larger electoral growth rate worked in the favour of the BJP, and the JJP suffered the most
Table 3 shows the voting choices of a growing electorate in the 2019 Assembly elections.
One of the biggest conundrums in both 2014 and 2019 is that while the growth rate of the electorate helped the BJP, the voter turnout in these high growth constituencies actually decreased. This means that fewer voters in these areas turned up at the polls. Despite the falling turnout, the BJP consistently benefited, leaving all its opponents struggling.
As Haryana moves towards elections again, it will be fascinating to see how these dynamics continue to evolve.
Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). Devesh Kumar is a Researcher at Lokniti-CSDS, a Research programme of CSDS. Views expressed are personal
Also read: Haryana Elections: Will congress’ recent gains in the rural areas, hurt BJP?
Published - October 02, 2024 08:00 am IST
