With AAP fielding 181 candidates in the 2022 Gujarat elections, who will the party gain the most seats/votes from — the Congress or the BJP? The following tables intend to answer this question.
Table 1 shows the number of seats gained or held. If a party wins/leads in a seat previously won by another, it is a gain. If a party wins/leads in a seat previously won by itself, it is a hold. The BJP led/won 156 seats, of which 91 were holds and 63 were gained from the Congress. The Congress led/won 17 seats, of which 10 were holds and 5 were gained from the BJP. AAP led/won in 5 seats, of which, 2 seats were gained from the Congress and 2 seats were gained from the BJP. So when seats are considered, AAP gained equally from both the Congress and the BJP.
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Table 2 breaks down the AAP’s vote share in 2022, in seats won by the BJP in 2017 and in seats won by the Congress in 2017. AAP’s vote share of 12.8% in seats won by the BJP in 2017 is higher than their vote share of 6.9% in seats won by the Congress in 2017. Here too the data gives an impression that AAP gained from the BJP more that it did so from the Congress
Table 3 breaks down the AAP’s vote share in 2022 across four categories — in seats where both BJP and INC lost vote share in 2022, in seats where only INC lost votes, in seats where the BJP lost votes and in seats where both BJP and Congress gained votes. This table gives a much clearer picture. AAP’s vote share in seats, where only Congress lost votes but the BJP gained, was 11.8%. AAP’s vote share in seats, where only BJP lost votes and the Congress gained, was only 3.3%. This data shows that AAP gained more votes from seats where the Congress became weaker in 2022 compared to 2017.