Data | The 2022 Gujarat Election was not a tight race unlike 2017 polls

Gujarat elections: BJP supporters wave party flags during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election campaign roadshow for the Gujarat Assembly elections, in Ahmedabad, Friday, Dec.2, 2022. | Photo Credit: PTI

The 2017 Gujarat election was a close affair with the winner in more than 30 seats getting decided by a win margin of less than 2.5% votes. But that was not the case this year. In 2022, the BJP lead/won in 51 seats by a margin of >30%. The win margin is the difference in votes between the winner/leader and the second-best party in a seat

Table 1 shows the number of seats led/won by parties in 2022 across various vote share ranges. The change in the number of such seats from 2017 is also listed. For instance, the BJP led/won in 157 seats. Of them, the lead/win margin was less than 10% in 26 seats, between 10-20% in 52 seats, between 20-30% in 28 seats and over 30% in 51 seats. Overall, in 2022, in 43 out of 182 seats, the lead/win margin was less than 10% votes. In 2017, 44 more seats were won with a margin of less than 10% votes. A sharp increase in the number of seats led/won by >30% votes and a decline in the number of seats led/won by <10% votes show that the 2022 Gujarat election was not a tight race unlike 2017

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Table 2 takes a closer look at the number of seats led/won with relatively fewer votes. Win/lead margins of less than 2.5% show that the race came down to a handful of votes. Overall, in 2022, in 13 seats the lead/win margin was <2.5% votes. In 2017, 19 more seats were won with a similar margin. This figure further shows that this was not a close election. 

Table 3 shows the number of seats led/won by parties in 2022 across various vote margins (in absolute terms). For example, in 2022, the BJP led/won in 1 seat with a margin of <500 votes, and it led/won in 141 seats with a margin of >10,000 votes. Overall, in only 1 seat the win/lead margin was <500 votes.