Excess June rainfall may not make it a good monsoon

June 20, 2015 02:50 am | Updated April 03, 2016 05:54 am IST - NEW DELHI:

Mumbai: A couple clicks selfie on a water logged road after heavy rains in Mumbai on Friday. PTI Photo by Shashank Parade (PTI6_19_2015_000207A)

Mumbai: A couple clicks selfie on a water logged road after heavy rains in Mumbai on Friday. PTI Photo by Shashank Parade (PTI6_19_2015_000207A)

If the rainfall is above normal in June, the monsoon turns out to be above normal during 65 per cent of such years, shows an analysis of rainfall data since 1900 by The Hindu . As of June 18 this year, rainfall has been in excess by 10 per cent, raising hopes that the monsoon may not be deficient as forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

While this correlation between rainfall in June and the performance of the overall monsoon suggests that this year’s rains could be good, an official said the department stood by its forecast of a deficient monsoon with rainfall at 88 per cent of the normal.

The rainfall is becoming increasingly prone to periodic climate effects such as El Nino, which makes forecasts uncertain.

“The correlation between the June rainfall and the performance of the monsoon does not take into account the El Nino years,” D.S. Pai, Chief Forecaster at the IMD, said. El Nino can badly affect the monsoon.

As Dr. Pai pointed out, the previous three El Nino years — 1991, 2002 and 2004 — have seen normal to above-normal rainfall in June, but the overall monsoon was below-normal to deficient.

“This year is already a strong El Nino year, and so the monsoon could still be deficient,” Dr. Pai said. However, he does say that forecasting the monsoon is fraught with uncertainty due to various climatic phenomena. “Right now, we are seeing a favourable Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is resulting in good rainfall in June. But it will die out by the month-end, which could again reduce the amount of rainfall seen in the country,” he said.

Madden-Julian Oscillation causes great intra-seasonal variation in rainfall, which further complicates forecasting.

The monsoon so far is in line with the forecast made by a private weather forecaster, Skymet, which forecast rainfall above normal by 7 per cent in June. Contrary to the IMD’s prediction of a deficient monsoon, Skymet forecast a normal monsoon. “We stand by our initial forecast of a normal monsoon this year,” G.P. Sharma, vice-president (meteorology), Skymet Weather Services, said. “The rainfall in June is as we had predicted,” he said.

The IMD’s latest monsoon report says, “Conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of Chhattisgarh, Odisha and West Bengal during the next 48 hours. Conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of the north Arabian Sea and Gujarat during the next 72 hours.”

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