Do women prefer the BJP/NDA over other parties?

The data indicate that the belief that women voters have consistently and overwhelmingly favoured the BJP over the past decade is an overstatement

Jammu: Women voters show their fingers marked with indelible ink after casting vote during the second phase of Lok Sabha elections (PTI Photo) | Photo Credit: -

The role of women voters in Indian elections has become a matter of discussion and analysis over the past decade. A popular narrative suggests that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has effectively garnered the support of women voters. Many credit this achievement to various women-centric welfare schemes launched by the Narendra Modi-led government. Among several policy initiatives, the Ujjwala scheme, which provides free cooking gas connections to women from low-income households, is considered a game-changer. In prevailing discussions, it is believed that these schemes have significantly improved the lives of Indian women, and in return, they have started favouring the BJP/National Democratic Alliance (NDA) candidates during elections.

However, the outcomes of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections present a more complex picture. The election results, especially the performance of high-profile women candidates of the BJP, suggest that the narrative of overwhelming female support for the BJP may not be as definite as it appears. Of the 69 women contesting on BJP tickets, only 31 were elected to the 18th Lok Sabha, with several prominent candidates losing their seats in significant battles. Smriti Irani, the former Minister of Women and Child Development, had won the high-profile Amethi seat in 2019, defeating Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. During the 2024 election, however, she lost the seat to Congress leader Kishori Lal Sharma by a margin of 1,67,196 votes. Similarly, Dr. Bharti Pravin Pawar, the former Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare, who contested from the Dindori seat (Scheduled Tribe reserved seat) in Maharashtra, lost to Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar)’s Bhaskar Murlidhar Bhagare by 1,13,199 votes. Sadhvi Niranjan Jyoti, Maneka Gandhi, and Navneet Rana and others also suffered defeat, raising questions about whether the BJP/NDA had lost its hold on the women electorate.

This trend of prominent BJP women candidates losing elections leads to a critical examination of the widely held belief that women voters have predominantly supported the BJP/NDA in recent elections. Data from the Lokniti-CSDS post-poll surveys challenge the notion of a uniform women vote for the BJP/NDA over the past three Lok Sabha elections (2014-2024). The surveys reveal that women voters, like their male counterparts, are divided between various political parties, with no significant advantage for the BJP/NDA among women voters nationally.

Table 1 shows how women voters have voted for the BJP/NDA in the past three general elections 

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As shown in Table 1, there has been a modest increase in the share of women voting for the NDA, from 37% in 2014 to 43% in 2024. However, this increase is not very different from the share among male voters. 

Table 2 shows how women voters have voted for the UPA/INDIA bloc in the past three general elections

There has also been a gradual increase in the share of women supporting the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)/INDIA bloc, from 27% in 2019 to 33% in 2024. This suggests that the BJP/NDA’s perceived dominance among women voters may be overstated. Overall, women voters appear to be as divided as their male counterparts, with neither the NDA nor the UPA/INDIA bloc enjoying a decisive edge among this demographic.

State-wise variations

While the national picture suggests a somewhat equal distribution of women’s votes between the BJP/NDA and other parties, a State-wise analysis reveals more complexity. 

Table 3 shows the share of women voters in States where the BJP/NDA gained support among them in the 2024 general elections.

Madhya Pradesh is the only State where the NDA made significant inroads, with 60% of women voters supporting the BJP in 2024, compared to 53% in 2019. The increase in women’s support for the NDA in Andhra Pradesh was largely due to the BJP’s alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). Although the BJP performed well in Odisha, the gains among women voters were modest. In Gujarat, despite losing one Lok Sabha seat, the BJP managed to retain its support base among women voters.

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The UPA/INDIA bloc gained support among women voters across many States. The most significant gain for the INDIA bloc among women voters was in Uttar Pradesh, where 45% supported the Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) candidates. It is important to note that the Congress and SP had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election against each other, not as allies. In Haryana, the share of women voting for the Congress increased from 29% in 2019 to 49% in the 2024 election. The INDIA bloc won five of the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the State, whereas during the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the NDA had won all 10 seats.

There was also a significant shift among women voters in favour of the INDIA bloc in Karnataka and Maharashtra, where the alliance performed much better in 2024 compared to 2019. 

Table 4 shows the share of women voters in States where the UPA/INDIA bloc gained support among them in the 2024 general elections.

In Telangana, there was saw a noticeable shift among women voters towards the INDIA bloc. Although the BJP performed very well in Uttarakhand, Delhi, and Chhattisgarh, the NDA suffered losses among women voters in these States.

The data indicate that the belief that women voters have consistently and overwhelmingly favoured the BJP over the past decade is an overstatement. It is clear that women voters display diverse political preferences that vary significantly across States and elections.

Source: Lokniti-CSDS survey