Data | Will BA.2 lead to another surge in India? Premium

Data show that the rise in cases recorded between December 2021 and mid-January 2022 in India (dubbed as the Omicron wave) was in most part due to the BA.2 sub-lineage

Abs 2019-nCoV RNA virus - 3d rendered image on black background. Viral Infection concept. MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV, ТОРС, 2019-nCoV, Wuhan Coronavirus. Hologram SEM view. | Photo Credit: koto_feja

COVID-19 cases are peaking in several East and Southeast Asian and European countries. The surge is fuelled mainly by the BA.2 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant. The rapid rise has caused anxiety in India. Data show that the rise in cases recorded between December 2021 and mid-January 2022 in India (dubbed as the Omicron wave) was in most part due to the BA.2 sub-lineage. So, while the sub-lineage has just become dominant in other nations, it became dominant in India as early as January 2022. Moreover, hospitalisation data show that BA.2 is milder than the previous variants

Rise in cases

 The graph shows the average cases in select countries since October 1, 2021. South Korea, Vietnam, Germany, Austria, Thailand and Malaysia recorded their pandemic peaks in the last 10 days. India recorded its second-highest case peak between December 2021 and January 2022 (Omicron wave)

 

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 Sub-lineage share

The graph shows the % share of cases due to various Omicron sub-lineages across countries between December 2021 and March 2022

 

 

 

 

 

Hospitalisation data

The graph shows the % of ICU beds, % of ventilator beds and the % of oxygen beds that were occupied in Mumbai during the three pandemic waves in India. As can be seen from the graph, the share of hospital beds occupied across categories barely crossed the 20% mark during the Omicron wave whereas it reached 100% during the previous waves. As the Omicron wave was mostly fuelled by BA.2 in India, the sub-lineage can be termed as milder than past variants

 

Source: Outbreak.info, Our world in Data, @Shananalla

• The surge in COVID-19 cases in several East and Southeast Asian and European countries is fuelled mainly by the BA.2 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant.
• Data show that the rise in cases recorded between December 2021 and mid-January 2022 in India (dubbed as the Omicron wave) was in most part due to the BA.2 sub-lineage.
• As the Omicron wave was mostly fuelled by BA.2 in India, the sub-lineage can be termed as milder than past variants.