Data

Data | One year since Article 370 revocation: economy crippled, more locals take up militancy, and more

File photo of CRPF personnel standing guard at a market during the shutdown in Srinagar, in the aftermath of Article 370 abrogation.

File photo of CRPF personnel standing guard at a market during the shutdown in Srinagar, in the aftermath of Article 370 abrogation.   | Photo Credit: NISSAR AHMAD

Two spells of lockdown — the first after Jammu and Kashmir was stripped of its statehood and its special constitutional status and the second related to COVID-19 — have left the erstwhile State in disarray.

With the tourism industry crippled and 4G Internet still not restored, J&K’s economy has suffered. While terrorism considerably dipped, cross-border infiltrations have gone up and more locals are being recruited for terrorist activities.

Internet snapped

The Internet shutdown in the J&K U.T. between August 4, 2019 and March 4, 2020 was the longest in any democracy. Even after the shutdown ended, only 2G and broadband Internet were restored.

image/svg+xml 80 60 40 20 0 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 46 shutdowns recorded in 2020 with five months left in the year

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Tourism hit

Tourism, which forms 8-10% of J&K’s GDP, was in a shambles after the August 5, 2019 lockdown. Less than 50,000 tourists visited the U.T. between August and December 2019.

image/svg+xml
 

Economy shock

In the 120 days after August 5, 2019, the 10 districts of the Kashmir Valley suffered a loss of ₹17,878.18 cr. according to the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce & Industry. Here is how the figure was arrived at:

image/svg+xml A B C D E FY18 economic output of J&K ~60% of that from 10 districts ~40% of that for the 120 days ~15% at which economy operated ~Net loss = C minus D 93,628 cr. 51,495 cr. 20,598 cr. 2,718 cr. 17,877 cr.
 

State of joblessness

The CMIE data show that the unemployment rate (UR) breached the 20% mark in August 2019 after staying below the figure for 30 months.

image/svg+xml An UR of 22.4% was reported in August 2019 30 20 10 0 Jan. 2016 July 2020

Also read: No new government jobs in J&K a year after Article 370 move

Lockdown impact

Terrorism-related deaths hit a low in 2012 after continuously declining from 2001. However, terrorism returned to the Valley since, peaking in 2018.

image/svg+xml The Aug. 5 lockdown did reduce the fatalities in 2019 after the 2018 peak 4,000 1,000 400 100 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 All Terrorism related deaths 2018 Terrorist deaths

Fatalities drop

According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the lockdown and increase in Army presence led to a decrease in terrorism-related deaths. Yet the fatalities post-lockdown were higher compared to the low levels seen in 2012.

image/svg+xml Period Incidents of killings Civilian deaths Personnel deaths Terrorist deaths 1 year before Aug. 5, 2019 214 64 117 276 1 year since Aug. 5, 2019 113 36 38 181

Local threat

Despite the decrease in terrorism-related deaths, the number of local recruits increased. In 2020, until March, 87.5% of the militants killed were locals according to SATP.

image/svg+xml Year % locals 2018 55% 2019 79% 2020 87.5% 2020 data upto March Table 1
 

Also, according to data furnished in Parliament, infiltration attempts across the border increased significantly.

image/svg+xml Period Infiltration attempts Net infiltration 88-day period between Aug. 5 and Oct. 31, 2019 84 59 88-day period between May 9 and Aug. 4, 2019 53 32 Table 2

Also read: Are people in J&K citizens or subjects?

Source: Jammu and Kashmir: The Impact of Lockdowns on Human Rights, internshutdowns.in

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Printable version | Sep 23, 2020 8:22:02 AM | https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-one-year-since-article-370-revocation-economy-crippled-more-locals-take-up-militancy-and-more/article32273731.ece

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