Data

Data | Jharkhand election 2019: JMM+ victorious on the back of BJP's dipping urban vote share

West Singhbhum,Jharkhand 17th April 2014:: Voters are in a quene to give their vote for the Lok Sabha Election at Sarda village in West Singhbhum on Thursday.photo-Manob Chowdhury

West Singhbhum,Jharkhand 17th April 2014:: Voters are in a quene to give their vote for the Lok Sabha Election at Sarda village in West Singhbhum on Thursday.photo-Manob Chowdhury   | Photo Credit: Manob Chowdhury

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This is the fifth state where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was ousted from power in the last year

The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress-RJD alliance emerged triumphant in the Jharkhand Assembly elections on Monday by securing 47 out of 81 seats.

The BJP managed to win 25 seats despite securing the highest vote share among parties. The JMM emerged as the single largest party with 30 seats.

Final tally

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BJP's Raghubar Das resigned from the post of Chief Minister after the drubbing.

“I met Governor Droupadi Murmu and submitted my resignation. The Governor asked me to be caretaker CM till the new government is formed," the outgoing Chief Minister told reporters after coming out of the Raj Bhavan in Ranchi.

Mr. Das lost to party rebel Saryu Roy, who left the party after being denied ticket from Jamshedpur (West) seat. Mr. Roy contested the poll from the Jamshedpur (East), a seat held by Mr. Das five times, as an Independent.

The result can be partly attributed to the huge dip in BJP's vote share in the urban areas which benefited the JMM and its allies. Interestingly, the BJP marginally gained in the rural areas while the JMM+ maintained their vote share in the rest of the areas.

Rural-urban voting patterns

Though the BJP continued to score well in the urban areas, their vote share took a major hit. It secured 40.4% of the votes polled in the urban areas, a 4 percentage point decrease compared to 2014. JMM and its allies secured 35.5% of the votes polled in the urban areas, a 4 percentage point increase compared to 2014.

In semi-urban areas, the BJP’s vote share decreased by 8.4 percentage points compared to 2014. But, the JMM and its allies did not gain from the BJP’s drop in vote share in semi-urban seats.

Table lists vote share (%) in 2019 and change in vote share since 2014 (% points) across rural-urban seats.

Rural-urban vote share changes by party

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Seat-wise change in vote share

In 39 seats, the BJP’s vote share decreased compared to 2014, while it increased in 40 seats. The party’s gain in rural areas can be attributed to the huge gains made in two rural seats: Panki (33% point gain) and Daltonganj(29 % point gain).

The graph below shows BJP’s vote share in 2019 and the change in vote share since 2014. Dark red circles indicate rural seats while light red circles indicate semi-rural seats. Dark green circles indicate urban seats and light green circles indicate semi-urban seats.

(In 2014, the BJP was in alliance with AJSU and LJP while in the recent election it contested alone)

BJP's share of votes

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JMM and its allies increased their vote share in 44 seats, while it fell in 26 seats. The coalition gained across regions including urban constituencies such as Hatia and Jharia.

The graph below shows JMM and its allies’ vote share in 2019 and the change in vote share since 2014.

(in 2014, JMM did not partner with the Congress and the RJD)

JMM-Congress-RJD share of votes

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The conclusions from the above chart are mentioned below:

Urban and semi-urban losses

In semi-urban areas, the BJP’s vote share decreased by 8.4 percentage points compared to 2014. But, the JMM and its allies did not gain from the BJP’s drop in vote share in semi-urban seats.

BJP’s vote share fell in 19 seats across urban and semi-urban areas in Jharkhand. In sharp contrast, that figure for JMM and its allies in such seats was eight.

In 16 seats, BJP’s vote share declined between 0 to 20 percentage points. On the other hand, the JMM led alliance witnessed such a decline in its vote share in six seats only.

The table below shows the number of seats in which the vote shares of both the BJP and JMM and its allies declined. For instance, the BJP's vote share fell by upto nine percentage points in five urban seats. Whereas, the same figure for JMM and its allies was one.

Vote share loss

Vote share change (% points)BJP (Urban)BJP (Semi-urban)JMM+ (Urban)JMM+ (Semi-urban)
>-300100
-20 to -301102
-10 to -192421
0 to -95512

 

In Ramgarh, BJP saw its vote share diminish by 31.09 percentage points, its highest among urban and semi-urban seats. The biggest loss in vote share for JMM and its allies was in Gomiya, where vote share dipped by 25 percentage points.

Urban and semi-urban gains

In urban and semi-urban seats, BJP’s vote share increased in only six constituencies while that of JMM and its allies rose in 17 seats.

The table below shows the number of seats in which the vote shares of both the BJP and JMM and its allies increased. For instance, the BJP's vote share rose between 0 and 9 percentage points in four urban seats. Whereas, the same figure for JMM and its allies was 12.

Vote share gain

Vote share change (% points)BJP (Urban)BJP (Semi-urban)JMM+ (Urban)JMM+ (Semi-urban)
0 to 92257
10 to 150111
16 to 201001
>200020

 

The biggest increase in vote share recorded by JMM and its allies in urban and semi-urban areas was in Hatia. 

The maps show party-wise winners in 2019 and 2014 Assembly elections.

Jharkhand 2019 Results

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Jharkhand 2014 Results

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SC/ST voting pattern

The BJP lost vote share mostly in seats where the SC/ST population was relatively lower.

SC/ST dynamics

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