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Data | How many times did incumbents retain power in Assembly elections since 2014?

AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal addresses supporters along with family members and leaders after party's victory in the Delhi Assembly polls, at AAP office in New Delhi, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2020.

AAP convenor Arvind Kejriwal addresses supporters along with family members and leaders after party's victory in the Delhi Assembly polls, at AAP office in New Delhi, Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2020.   | Photo Credit: PTI

A look at the outcomes of 33 Assembly elections since the BJP's win in the 2014 Lok Sabha election reveals a significant anti-incumbency trend

The Aam Aadmi Party returned to power in Delhi winning 88% of the seats and over 53% of the total votes. Since 1972, no other party has received such a strong mandate in a Delhi Assembly re-election.

Since the BJP’s win in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, there have been only 6 out of 33 State elections in which a non-BJP incumbent has returned to power.

AAP stands out

Table shows the contested seat share, contested vote share and total vote share of the winners and runners up in the 10 Assembly elections held in Delhi since 1972.

image/svg+xml Winner Runner-up Delhi Assembly elections Party Contested Party Contested 1972 INC 84.62 52.54 BJS 8.93 38.47 1977 JNP 82.14 52.58 INC 19.23 39.05 1983 INC 60.71 47.5 BJP 38 43.17 1993 BJP 70 42.82 INC 20 34.48 1998 INC 74.29 47.76 BJP 22.39 35.82 2003 INC 67.14 48.13 BJP 28.57 35.22 2008 INC 61.43 40.31 BJP 33.33 36.84 2013 AAP 40 29.64 BJP 45.59 34.12 2015 AAP 95.71 54.59 BJP 4.35 32.78 2020 AAP 88.57 53.57 BJP 11.94 40.57 Seat share Vote share Seat share Vote share
 

The two times when the Congress returned to power, its seat shares were over 60%. However, in the two instances when the AAP retained power, it won the highest number of seats since 1972 (67 and 62 seats, respectively).

Tough opposition

The table below looks at outcomes for 33 Assembly elections since 2014.

image/svg+xml No. of States that went to polls 33 Ruling party came back to power 7 Ruling party did not come back 22 Ruling party came back to power in a coalition 4
 

Of the 22 instances where the incumbents did not retain power, the BJP wrested control of the State in 13 instances. This suggests incumbent parties found it tough to overcome the BJP when it was in opposition. Of the 7 instances when the ruling party came back to power without a coalition, one (Gujarat) involved the BJP’s return.

Exceptions

Apart from the AAP in ‘15 & ‘20, the BJD in Odisha, the TMC in West Bengal, the TRS in Telangana and AIADMK in Tamil Nadu have successfully fought anti-incumbency in polls since 2014. In Telangana & T.N., the BJP is a weak force.

The table below compares the contested vote share (CVS) and the contested seat share (CSS) of the four regional parties and BJP across eight different elections.

image/svg+xml Election Party CVS (%) CSS (%) Election Party CVS (%) CSS (%) Tamil Nadu 2011 AIADMK 54.06 90.91 Odisha 2014 BJD 43.41 79.59 BJP 2.55 0 BJP 18.02 6.8 Tamil Nadu 2016 AIADMK 41.06 57.69 Odisha 2019 BJD 44.71 76.71 BJP 3.57 0 BJP 32.49 15.75 Telangana 2014 TRS 34.3 11.11 West Bengal 2011 AITC 50.15 81.4 BJP 19.3 52.94 BJP 4.14 0 Telangana 2018 TRS 47.09 73.95 West Bengal 2016 AITC 45.18 72.01 BJP 7.13 0.85 BJP 10.28 1.03
 

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Printable version | Feb 20, 2020 12:45:35 PM | https://www.thehindu.com/data/data-how-many-times-did-incumbents-retain-power-in-assembly-elections-since-2014/article30822623.ece

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