The Lokniti-CSDS post-poll survey found that 44% of those who voted for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh considered the Modi government’s work while casting their vote. Strikingly, only 2% said they considered the legislator’s work. These findings reveal that a voter is more influenced by the national/regional leader’s work than a legislator’s work. Thus, the candidates find it beneficial to jump ship and place their bets on leaders/parties who are the hot favourites in an election. In the past five U.P. elections, 551 candidates have switched parties between the Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), Congress, and BJP. The candidates who switched to the BJP in 2017 and 2022 had a higher chance of winning compared to the turncoats fielded by the SP.
- The BSP lost the most number of candidates (199) to the SP, BJP and Congress during the last five polls
- 2The SP was the highest gainer of turncoats in the past five Assembly elections. About 181 joined the party from the BSP, BJP and Congress
- 3 Candidates who switched to the BJP in 2017 were the most successful
The chart shows the number of candidates who switched to the BJP in the past five elections. The BJP was the most sought-after party for turncoats in 2017 and fielded as many as 76 candidates who had switched sides
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The chart shows the number of candidates who switched to the SP in the past five elections. The SP was the most preferred choice for turncoats in 2002, 2007, and 2022. The party fielded 260 turncoats in the past five elections
The chart shows the number of candidates who switched to the Congress in the past five elections. The Congress has been the least preferred choice for turncoats
The chart shows the number of candidates who switched to the BSP in the past five elections. The BSP gained its highest number of turncoats (51) in 2007
The table lists the strike rates of turncoats (wins/seats contested) fielded by the four prominent parties
*Other parties: Parties other than SP, BJP, BSP and INC
Source: Lok Dhaba, Ashoka University
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