As much as 43-48% of new three-wheelers (excluding e-rickshaws), and 12-17% of new two-wheelers sold in India will be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2024, Crisil Research said in a study. But the traction may be low for four-wheelers, with only 5% of new sales likely to be EVs.
Looking at demand, supply and policy growth drivers for EVs such as battery costs, government subsidy and charging infrastructure, the study said that faster adoption of two-and three-wheelers would be a function of cost.
Typically, electric scooters are cheaper to run compared with ICE scooters. And e-autos are cheaper to both own and run compared with their ICE counterparts.
“Supply will also be a critical factor for adoption. The top five electric two-wheeler manufacturers are expected to increase their capacity for electric variants from 0.4 million units in fiscal 2020 to over 3 million units by fiscal 2024. And in three-wheelers, even incumbent original equipment manufacturers are launching e-autos at a rapid pace. But low-speed, four-seater e-rickshaws are fast emerging as an alternative to e-autos because of being 30% cheaper,” said Hetal Gandhi, director, Crisil Research.
But, sales of personal e-cars will remain low due to high acquisition and ownership costs, in the absence of demand incentives. Cab aggregators, however, would opt for EVs as these will provide better operational economies and subsidies.
A cab aggregator e-car that runs 50,000 km a year, for instance, can save about ₹1.65 lakh a year compared with ₹35,000 for a personal e-car that runs 10,000 km a year. The study added that in commercial vehicles, subsidies to State transport undertakings will drive sales of electric buses for intra-city operations. But poor public charging infrastructure will impact adoption.
Crisil Research expects the landed cost of the lithium ion battery, a key driver of EV adoption, to fall in line with an expected drop in global prices by fiscal 2024.
