The damage to the rabi crop in key agrarian states, caused by unseasonal rains and hailstorms in February and March, compounded by the less-than-normal monsoon this year will take a toll on domestic tractor sales volumes in 2014-15.
We reckon that domestic tractor sales volumes are likely to fall by 3-5 per cent year-on-year this fiscal due to the delayed kharif sowing caused by the late onset of rainfall this season – rainfall was 18 per cent deficient during June-August this year. Key agrarian areas like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, West Rajasthan and Bihar have received deficient rainfall ranging from 64 per cent to 16 per cent.
Although kharif sowing has picked up in August (latest agriculture ministry estimates suggest near- to above-normal sowing in rice and cotton but below-normal sowing in cereals, oilseeds and pulses), it is still 3.2 per cent lower when compared with a year-ago period. At the beginning of August, sowing was 14 per cent below last season’s figure.
Unseasonal rains Moreover, the sentiment was negative in the first quarter (April-June 2014) because of unseasonal rains that caused some damage to the rabi crop. This hit tractor sales during March-May in major states such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan and, to some extent, Haryana and Punjab.
The poor monsoon this year will impact the kharif crop and heighten the downside risk to agricultural income and, consequently, tractor sales in states that are critically dependent on rainfall. Farmer realisations in the kharif season are also likely to be lower this year as many farmers went in for short-duration crops early in the season due to predictions of deficient rainfall. Even in less-rainfall dependent states such as Punjab and Haryana, costs of inputs (power, fuel etc) will go up and impact incomes. The hike in minimum support prices (MSPs) of both kharif and rabi crops — which has played a key role in propelling tractor sales in the past — is also modest this year (1-4 per cent year-on-year) compared with an average 10-15 per cent each year between 2007-08 and 2012-13.
On the positive side, however, news on water levels in the country’s 85 major reservoirs areas is more encouraging for the forthcoming rabi crop. According to the Central Water Commission storage this year is slightly higher than the average of the last 10 years (as of August 21) although it is still about 12 per cent lower than in the corresponding period last year.
Nevertheless, the overall sentiment towards tractor purchases may not take a turn for the positive until the fag end of the year unlike last fiscal when a good kharif and rabi output reflected in healthy growth in tractor sales till February before unseasonal rains in March.
Monsoon, still a critical factor The dip in tractor sales this year will be a disappointment to the industry, coming as it does on the back of a robust 19-21 per cent growth in 2013-14 but it does reveal how critically dependent the domestic industry still is on rainfall.
Despite considerable progress on the irrigation front, the progress of the monsoon still has a direct bearing in many states on crop production and, consequently, tractor sales.
Traditionally, the impact of a deficient monsoon is most in the western regions, followed by the South, particularly Tamil Nadu, which is highly dependent on the rainfall. But in 2014-15, we expect sales may decline by 5-7 per cent in the west, and 3-5 per cent in the North. The South will be relatively unscathed, largely because of the relatively better monsoons in Karnataka.
In Haryana and Punjab, the weak monsoon will compound the effects of the damage to the rabi crop in terms of an increase in input costs. Sales will slip by 8-10 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra (in the western region), both of which are key tractor markets. In Gujarat, we expect sales to be flat, but that number masks the fact that last year’s base is very low. In Tamil Nadu, we expect back-to-back monsoon failures to continue to severely impact sales.
In the long term, however, tractor sales will rise steadily supported by stable farm incomes, increase in investments on irrigation projects, growing commercial usage of tractors and increased focus of government on agricultural and rural development.
Cross-country comparison also indicates healthy demand potential with the current penetration of tractors estimated to be close to 1 hp per hectare compared to a range of 3-4 hp per hectare in developed countries. Clearly, India has a long way to catch up.
The author is Director, Crisil Research, a division of Crisil.
