Retail loans to double to ₹96 lakh cr. by 2024, shows ICICI Bank-Crisil study

Picture for representation purpose only.

Picture for representation purpose only.   | Photo Credit: PTI

Higher demand for private consumption, data availability to drive growth

The retail loan book of Indian financiers is expected to double in the next five years to ₹96 lakh crore, according to a study conducted by ICICI Bank and rating agency Crisil.

All the components of retail loans — mortgage, unsecured loans and vehicle loans — are projected to record similar growth.

Loans to micro, medium, and small enterprises (MSMEs) are likely to more than double to ₹13.2 lakh crore.

According to the report, home loans — normal and low-cost housing and loans against property — are expected to double to ₹46.1 lakh crore in FY24. Unsecured loans — which are personal loans and credit cards — are expected to more than double to ₹13.8 lakh crore in FY24

CV loans

Commercial vehicle, four and two-wheeler loans are tipped to nearly double to ₹17.5 lakh crore.

“India’s GDP per capita in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP) is now $7,762. Our analysis predicts that this junction will prove to be an inflection point for the country, as it was with another large economy a few years ago.

“We foresee that in the next five years, the domestic retail loans market is poised to double to ₹96 trillion,” said Anup Bagchi, executive director, ICICI Bank.

The report says that this rapid growth will take place on the back of increased demand for private consumption, willingness of consumers to take loans, increased availability of various consumer data, improved usage of data analytics and regulatory initiatives propelling growth in low cost housing loans and MSME loans.

Amish Mehta, chief operating officer and president, Crisil, said growth is expected to be higher in smaller cities outside the top 50 cities.

“The top five players are foreseen continuing their dominance of the market, across asset classes.

For example, in housing loans, despite the market having over 100 players, the top five players alone have a cumulative market share of over 50%.” Mr. Mehta said. The report is based on interviews with 200 experts from the retail loans industry.

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Printable version | Feb 17, 2020 12:55:38 PM |

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