Global trade is projected to grow by a modest 6.5 per cent this year as uncertainties continue to persist in major economies like Japan, WTO economists said here on Thursday.
For 2011, the economists are forecasting “a more modest 6.5 per cent increase, but with uncertainty about the impact of a number of recent events, including the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. If achieved this would be higher than the 6 per cent average yearly increase between 1990 and 2008.''
WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy too said: “...the hangover from the financial crisis is still with us.” Mr. Lamy said that high unemployment in developed economies and sharp belt-tightening in Europe would keep fuelling protectionist pressures. The short-term outlook is clouded by a number of significant risks factors in addition to the catastrophes in Japan, the WTO said in a statement.
“These include rising prices for food and other primary products, and unrest in major oil exporting countries. Adverse developments in any of these areas could potentially set back the economic recovery and limit the expansion of trade in the coming year,” it said. It also said that India notched an impressive growth in global trade of goods and services last year. India's goods exports increased by 31 per cent last year, while its imports rose by 25 per cent. India ranked 20th in global exports and 13th in imports of goods last year, while China remained the largest exporter of goods and the second largest importer in the same period.
In the arena of global commercial services too, China performed exceedingly well as compared to India which is supposed to be hub for software services. India ranked 10th in exports and seventh in imports of global commercial services as compared to China's fourth position in exports and third position in imports.
Patrick Low, the WTO's chief economist, said the emerging economies continued to be the drivers of global trade with China's exports growing by 28 per cent last year. However, volatile oil prices which are expected to hover around $110, and persistent unemployment could pose a problem to continued growth in global trade.
The WTO's preliminary data suggest that China is the largest exporter with $1.58 trillion followed by the U.S. with $1.28 trillion.
