India’s real GDP growth is expected to grow by 8.8 per cent in FY’12 after having grown a tad faster, at 9 per cent in FY’11, the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has said.
“In FY’12, the Indian economy is projected to grow at a brisk 8.8 per cent. The agricultural and allied sector is projected to grow by 3.3 per cent in FY’12, on top of the 5.4 per cent growth estimated in FY’11,” the city-based think-tank said in its monthly review.
Growth and inflation would remain high in FY’12, it observed.
Inflation has remained high long enough for even those who were the proponents of growth against low inflation till recently to start worrying about inflation. The Government has effectively backed RBI’s 50 basis point interest rate hike on recent policy. This was the seventh hike in interest rates by the Central bank in 11 months.
Inflation climbed down from its peak of 16 per cent year-on-year in January 2010, but it remained in double-digits till July. It has not fallen even much thereafter. Between August 2010 and March 2011, WPI-inflation was between 8.5 per cent and 9.5 per cent.
The Government has expressed fears that high inflation and high crude oil prices may hurt growth. They have therefore expressed solidarity with RBI’s hike in interest rates to rein in inflation.
According to analysts, inflation is influenced much more by global commodity price trends and by higher employment caused by new capacities than by the levels of interest hikes announced by the RBI.
We see significant new capacity additions in FY’12. Its corresponding new employment and higher wages is expected to drive capital formation and consumption growth in FY’12, CMIE noted.
The industrial sector, including construction, is projected to grow by 9.4 per cent during FY’12, as compared to 8.5 per cent estimated in FY’11. The growth in industrial production will be driven by a rise consumption and investment demand. Consumption demand will be driven by a rise in wages and fresh employment generation, it said.
Investment demand is expected to remain buoyant, as more and more projects move into the implementation stage, the leading research outfit said.
Projects worth Rs. 8 lakh crore are scheduled to be commissioned in FY’12 as compared to Rs. 2.7 lakh crore in FY’11. This is expected to push up activities in the construction sector. The sector is projected to grow by 10.5 per cent during the current fiscal, as compared to an estimated 9.8 per cent in FY’11, it stated.
The growth in the services sector and its segments is projected to marginally moderate in FY’12. The sector is projected to expand by 9.9 per cent as compared to an estimated 10.2 per cent in FY’11.
Private final consumption expenditure is projected to grow by a healthy 7.5 per cent and gross fixed capital formation by 14.6 per cent in FY’12 in real terms, CMIE said.
